Sporting Cristal 1–2 FBC Melgar: Result & Stats

Sporting Cristal

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

FBC Melgar

3/14/2024

Primera División · Apertura - 8Estadio Nacional de Lima

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 148+ matches

Sporting Cristal53%

×Draw24%

FBC Melgar24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting CristalExpected goals in this matchFBC Melgar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.09

Sporting Cristal

1.75

FBC Melgar

1.09

Sporting Cristal creates 61% more chances

Season form · 153 home / 148 away

2.24

creates per match

1.37

0.82

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Sporting Cristal

2.24

FBC Melgar

1.37

allows per match

Sporting Cristal

0.82

FBC Melgar

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Cristal+0.00on par

FBC Melgar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Cristal ↓

FBC Melgar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Sporting Cristal or draw

76%

Sporting Cristal or FBC Melgar

76%

Draw or FBC Melgar

47%

Winning margin

Sporting Cristal wins by 2+

29%

FBC Melgar wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sporting Cristal 1+ goals

83%

Sporting Cristal 2+ goals

52%

Sporting Cristal 3+ goals

25%

FBC Melgar 1+ goals

66%

FBC Melgar 2+ goals

30%

FBC Melgar 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sporting Cristal (draw refunded)

69%

FBC Melgar (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Cristal at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.82 · 153 matches

FBC Melgar away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.26 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Cristal attack 2.24 + FBC Melgar defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.75

FBC Melgar attack 1.37 + Sporting Cristal defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sporting Cristal scores more

53%

level

24%

FBC Melgar scores more

24%

Sporting Cristal at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sporting Cristal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff