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FBC Melgar vs Sporting Cristal — Primera División 2026

FBC Melgar
FBC Melgar
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sporting Cristal
Sporting Cristal
3/8/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 5Estadio Monumental Virgen de Chapi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 148+ matches

FBC Melgar42%
×Draw25%
Sporting Cristal33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FBC Melgar
1.52
Sporting Cristal
1.33

FBC Melgar creates 14% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 156 away

creates per match

FBC Melgar
1.82
Sporting Cristal
1.79

allows per match

FBC Melgar
0.88
Sporting Cristal
1.23

finishing

FBC Melgar+0.00on par
Sporting Cristal+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FBC Melgar ↓

Sporting Cristal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

FBC Melgar or draw
67%
FBC Melgar or Sporting Cristal
75%
Draw or Sporting Cristal
58%

Winning margin

FBC Melgar wins by 2+
21%
Sporting Cristal wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FBC Melgar 1+ goals
78%
FBC Melgar 2+ goals
45%
FBC Melgar 3+ goals
20%
Sporting Cristal 1+ goals
74%
Sporting Cristal 2+ goals
38%
Sporting Cristal 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

FBC Melgar (draw refunded)
56%
Sporting Cristal (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FBC Melgar at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.88 · 148 matches

Sporting Cristal away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.23 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FBC Melgar attack 1.82 + Sporting Cristal defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sporting Cristal attack 1.79 + FBC Melgar defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FBC Melgar scores more
42%
level
25%
Sporting Cristal scores more
33%

FBC Melgar at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FBC Melgar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FBC Melgar vs Sporting Cristal

FBC Melgar beat Sporting Cristal 1-0 in Primera División on March 8, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental Virgen de Chapi in Arequipa.