Sporting Cristal 0–1 Emelec: Result & Stats

Sporting Cristal

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Emelec

J. Cevallos 52'

7/13/2023

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Round of 32Estadio Nacional de Lima

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sporting Cristal41%

×Draw26%

Emelec34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting CristalExpected goals in this matchEmelec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.29

Sporting Cristal

1.45

Emelec

1.29

Sporting Cristal creates 12% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

1.80

creates per match

1.18

1.40

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Sporting Cristal

1.80

Emelec

1.18

allows per match

Sporting Cristal

1.40

Emelec

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Cristal+0.00on par

Emelec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Cristal ↓

Emelec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Sporting Cristal or draw

66%

Sporting Cristal or Emelec

74%

Draw or Emelec

59%

Winning margin

Sporting Cristal wins by 2+

20%

Emelec wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sporting Cristal 1+ goals

77%

Sporting Cristal 2+ goals

42%

Sporting Cristal 3+ goals

18%

Emelec 1+ goals

72%

Emelec 2+ goals

37%

Emelec 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sporting Cristal (draw refunded)

55%

Emelec (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Cristal at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Emelec away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Cristal attack 1.80 + Emelec defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.45

Emelec attack 1.18 + Sporting Cristal defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sporting Cristal scores more

41%

level

26%

Emelec scores more

34%

Sporting Cristal at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sporting Cristal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

J. Cevallos

Emelec · M

7.9

Match Events

20'

Ignácio

22'

Carlos Villalba

44'

Cristhian Valencia

46'

J. Sánchez← D. García

52'

J. Cevallos↳ M. Bolaños

56'

Alejandro Cabeza

59'

W. Corozo← A. Hohberg

59'

J. Alarcón← J. Castillo

64'

Miller Bolaños

65'

S. Sosa← M. Bolaños

67'

Yoshimar Yotún

70'

L. Sosa← J. Lora

77'

N. Pasquini← N. Loyola

78'

I. Ávila← Brenner

79'

C. Fara← J. Cevallos

84'

Bryan Carabalí

90+6'

J. Alberti← A. Cabeza

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportingEmelec

Overview

72%Possession28%

13Total Shots7

2Corners0

7Fouls15

Shots

13Total Shots7

3On Target4

6Off Target2

4Blocked1

8Inside Box2

5Outside Box5

Passing

72%Possession28%

696Total Passes285

612Accurate Passes188

88%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls15

2Yellow Cards5

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Sporting Cristal 0–1 Emelec

Emelec beat Sporting Cristal 1-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on July 13, 2023.

Goals: J. Cevallos (52').

Sporting Cristal controlled possession (72%) and registered 13 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Nacional de Lima in Lima.

Sporting Cristal vs Emelec — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Sporting Cristal 0–1 Emelec