Emelec 0–0 Sporting Cristal: Result & Stats

Emelec

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sporting Cristal

7/20/2023

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Round of 32Estadio George Capwell

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Emelec39%

×Draw32%

Sporting Cristal29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EmelecExpected goals in this matchSporting Cristal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

0.86

Emelec

1.05

Sporting Cristal

0.86

Emelec creates 22% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

1.50

creates per match

0.80

0.92

allows per match

0.60

creates per match

Emelec

1.50

Sporting Cristal

0.80

allows per match

Emelec

0.92

Sporting Cristal

0.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Emelec+0.00on par

Sporting Cristal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emelec ↓

Sporting Cristal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Emelec or draw

71%

Emelec or Sporting Cristal

68%

Draw or Sporting Cristal

61%

Winning margin

Emelec wins by 2+

16%

Sporting Cristal wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Emelec 1+ goals

65%

Emelec 2+ goals

28%

Emelec 3+ goals

9%

Sporting Cristal 1+ goals

58%

Sporting Cristal 2+ goals

21%

Sporting Cristal 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Emelec (draw refunded)

57%

Sporting Cristal (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emelec at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Sporting Cristal away — creates 0.80, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emelec attack 1.50 + Sporting Cristal defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.05

Sporting Cristal attack 0.80 + Emelec defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Emelec scores more

39%

level

32%

Sporting Cristal scores more

29%

Emelec at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Emelec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

P. Ortíz

Emelec · G

7.7

Match Events

21'

Yoshimar Yotún

46'

J. Alarcón← R. Lutiger

46'

F. Medina← L. Sosa

59'

J. Sánchez← M. Bolaños

68'

S. Sosa← J. Cevallos

68'

A. Zapata← D. García

68'

G. Távara← J. Pretell

68'

W. Corozo← A. Hohberg

77'

I. Ávila← N. Pasquini

78'

B. Angulo← A. Cabeza

83'

Ignácio

88'

Cristhian Valencia

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EmelecSporting

Overview

40%Possession60%

9Total Shots14

1Corners4

11Fouls15

Shots

9Total Shots14

2On Target4

3Off Target6

4Blocked4

4Inside Box12

5Outside Box2

Passing

40%Possession60%

347Total Passes515

252Accurate Passes423

73%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

4Offsides3