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Sporting Cristal vs Deportivo Garcilaso — Primera División 2026

Sporting Cristal
Sporting Cristal
Preview
20:15
Deportivo Garcilaso
Deportivo Garcilaso
7/17/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 1Estadio Alberto Gallardo
Big match
52%
Sporting Cristal
model favours
52%24%23%

Sporting Cristal have won 4 of the last 5 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Sporting Cristal52%
×Draw24%
Deportivo Garcilaso23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Cristal
1.66
Deportivo Garcilaso
1.02

Sporting Cristal creates 63% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 32 away

creates per match

Sporting Cristal
2.00
Deportivo Garcilaso
1.09

allows per match

Sporting Cristal
0.94
Deportivo Garcilaso
1.31

finishing

Sporting Cristal+0.00on par
Deportivo Garcilaso+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Cristal ↓

Deportivo Garcilaso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sporting Cristal or draw
77%
Sporting Cristal or Deportivo Garcilaso
76%
Draw or Deportivo Garcilaso
48%

Winning margin

Sporting Cristal wins by 2+
28%
Deportivo Garcilaso wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sporting Cristal 1+ goals
81%
Sporting Cristal 2+ goals
49%
Sporting Cristal 3+ goals
23%
Deportivo Garcilaso 1+ goals
64%
Deportivo Garcilaso 2+ goals
27%
Deportivo Garcilaso 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sporting Cristal (draw refunded)
69%
Deportivo Garcilaso (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Cristal at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.94 · 31 matches

Deportivo Garcilaso away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.31 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Cristal attack 2.00 + Deportivo Garcilaso defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.66

Deportivo Garcilaso attack 1.09 + Sporting Cristal defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sporting Cristal scores more
52%
level
24%
Deportivo Garcilaso scores more
23%

Sporting Cristal at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sporting Cristal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 67% of Deportivo Garcilaso’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Sporting Cristal win just 26% against the top half (vs 61% against the bottom)
  • Style contrast — Sporting Cristal play Possession-dominant, Deportivo Garcilaso Direct / counter-attacking

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Sporting Cristal
Possession-dominant
Deportivo Garcilaso
Direct / counter-attacking
61%Possession42%
84%Pass accuracy75%
15.3Shots11.3
2.15xGBiggest gap1.06
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Sporting CristalDeportivo Garcilaso

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

4
Sporting Cristal
1
Draws
0
Deportivo Garcilaso
Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 60%
1–11–03–21–03–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Cristal
DWWDL
Garcilaso
DWLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sporting Cristal face Deportivo Garcilaso (Primera División)

Primera División returns with Sporting Cristal hosting Deportivo Garcilaso. Match starts July 17, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Sporting Cristal host Deportivo Garcilaso at Estadio Alberto Gallardo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.