Sporting Cristal 3–2 Deportivo Garcilaso

Sporting Cristal

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Deportivo Garcilaso

M. Cauteruccio 87' (pen), 41' (pen)

C. Gonzales 70'

A. Ugarriza 73'

P. Erustes 65' (pen)

6/15/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 15Estadio Alberto Gallardo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Sporting Cristal52%

×Draw24%

Deportivo Garcilaso23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting CristalExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Garcilaso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.02

Sporting Cristal

1.66

Deportivo Garcilaso

1.02

Sporting Cristal creates 63% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 32 away

2.00

creates per match

1.09

0.94

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Sporting Cristal

2.00

Deportivo Garcilaso

1.09

allows per match

Sporting Cristal

0.94

Deportivo Garcilaso

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Cristal+0.00on par

Deportivo Garcilaso+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Cristal ↓

Deportivo Garcilaso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sporting Cristal or draw

77%

Sporting Cristal or Deportivo Garcilaso

76%

Draw or Deportivo Garcilaso

48%

Winning margin

Sporting Cristal wins by 2+

28%

Deportivo Garcilaso wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sporting Cristal 1+ goals

81%

Sporting Cristal 2+ goals

49%

Sporting Cristal 3+ goals

23%

Deportivo Garcilaso 1+ goals

64%

Deportivo Garcilaso 2+ goals

27%

Deportivo Garcilaso 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sporting Cristal (draw refunded)

69%

Deportivo Garcilaso (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Cristal at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.94 · 31 matches

Deportivo Garcilaso away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.31 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Cristal attack 2.00 + Deportivo Garcilaso defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.66

Deportivo Garcilaso attack 1.09 + Sporting Cristal defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sporting Cristal scores more

52%

level

24%

Deportivo Garcilaso scores more

23%

Sporting Cristal at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sporting Cristal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

M. Tavara

Sporting Cristal · M

7.9

Match Events

13'

Alejandro Pósito

20'

Aldair SalazarRed card cancelled

22'

Aldair Salazar

26'

Orlando Nuñez

38'

Rafael LutigerPenalty confirmed

41'

M. CauteruccioPenalty

45+7'

45+2'

46'

46'

52'

58'

62'

Adrián UgarrizaPenalty confirmed

65'

P. ErustesPenalty

68'

J. Alarcon← J. Pretell

70'

C. Gonzales↳ J. Alarcon

73'

A. Ugarriza↳ P. Zubczuk

75'

F. Alcedo← A. J. Posito Olazabal

77'

X. Moreno← C. Beltran

83'

Ian WisdomPenalty confirmed

87'

M. CauteruccioPenalty

89'

H. Caparo← C. Gonzales

89'

M. Sosa← M. Castro

90+2'

Jostin Alarcón

90+2'

J. Bazan← K. Sandoval

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportingDeportivo

Overview

70%Possession30%

13Total Shots8

5Corners1

13Fouls15

Shots

13Total Shots8

5On Target3

6Off Target3

2Blocked2

8Inside Box4

5Outside Box4

Passing

70%Possession30%

484Total Passes203

408Accurate Passes124

84%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls15

3Yellow Cards5

2Offsides4