Deportivo Garcilaso 2–3 Sporting Cristal

Deportivo Garcilaso

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Sporting Cristal

A. Chicaiza 72' (pen)

G. Gentile 36'

S. González 45+1'

J. Grimaldo 27', 22'

4/16/2024

Primera División · Apertura - 11Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Deportivo Garcilaso45%

×Draw25%

Sporting Cristal30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo GarcilasoExpected goals in this matchSporting Cristal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.23

Deportivo Garcilaso

1.58

Sporting Cristal

1.23

Deportivo Garcilaso creates 28% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 32 away

1.53

creates per match

1.41

1.06

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Deportivo Garcilaso

1.53

Sporting Cristal

1.41

allows per match

Deportivo Garcilaso

1.06

Sporting Cristal

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Garcilaso+0.00on par

Sporting Cristal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Garcilaso ↓

Sporting Cristal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Deportivo Garcilaso or draw

70%

Deportivo Garcilaso or Sporting Cristal

75%

Draw or Sporting Cristal

55%

Winning margin

Deportivo Garcilaso wins by 2+

23%

Sporting Cristal wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Deportivo Garcilaso 1+ goals

79%

Deportivo Garcilaso 2+ goals

47%

Deportivo Garcilaso 3+ goals

21%

Sporting Cristal 1+ goals

71%

Sporting Cristal 2+ goals

35%

Sporting Cristal 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Garcilaso (draw refunded)

60%

Sporting Cristal (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Garcilaso at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.06 · 34 matches

Sporting Cristal away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.63 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Garcilaso attack 1.53 + Sporting Cristal defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.58

Sporting Cristal attack 1.41 + Deportivo Garcilaso defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Deportivo Garcilaso scores more

45%

level

25%

Sporting Cristal scores more

30%

Deportivo Garcilaso at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Deportivo Garcilaso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

J. Grimaldo

Sporting Cristal · M

8.2

Match Events

22'

J. Grimaldo↳ J. Pretell

27'

J. Grimaldo

30'

Gianfranco ChávezGoal confirmed

34'

Carlos Diez

36'

G. Gentile↳ A. Salazar

43'

Gaspar Gentile

45+1'

S. González

46'

A. Ugarriza← L. Urruti

46'

46'

46'

59'

69'

70'

A. Chicaiza← C. Beltrán

72'

A. ChicaizaPenalty

77'

J. Alarcón← Í. Ávila

77'

M. Távara← J. Lora

82'

Nicolás Pasquini

87'

D. Otoya← J. Grimaldo

90+3'

Erick Canales

90+3'

M. Castro← S. González

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoSporting

Overview

57%Possession43%

19Total Shots15

1.89Expected Goals (xG)1.46

4Corners4

12Fouls15

Shots

19Total Shots15

6On Target5

10Off Target6

3Blocked4

8Inside Box6

11Outside Box9

Passing

57%Possession43%

344Total Passes259

290Accurate Passes194

84%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls15

3Yellow Cards3

2Offsides6