Sporting Cristal 3–0 Comerciantes Unidos

Sporting Cristal

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Comerciantes Unidos

S. González 85'

M. Cauteruccio 73', 41'

11/3/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 17Estadio Alberto Gallardo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Sporting Cristal65%

×Draw19%

Comerciantes Unidos16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting CristalExpected goals in this matchComerciantes Unidos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.01

Sporting Cristal

2.27

Comerciantes Unidos

1.01

Sporting Cristal creates 125% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

2.72

creates per match

0.96

1.06

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Sporting Cristal

2.72

Comerciantes Unidos

0.96

allows per match

Sporting Cristal

1.06

Comerciantes Unidos

1.81

-0.08on par

finishing

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

Sporting Cristal-0.08on par

Comerciantes Unidos+0.24scores more

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Cristal ↓

Comerciantes Unidos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Sporting Cristal or draw

84%

Sporting Cristal or Comerciantes Unidos

81%

Draw or Comerciantes Unidos

35%

Winning margin

Sporting Cristal wins by 2+

42%

Comerciantes Unidos wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Sporting Cristal 1+ goals

90%

Sporting Cristal 2+ goals

66%

Sporting Cristal 3+ goals

39%

Comerciantes Unidos 1+ goals

64%

Comerciantes Unidos 2+ goals

27%

Comerciantes Unidos 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sporting Cristal (draw refunded)

81%

Comerciantes Unidos (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Cristal at home — creates 2.72, concedes 1.06 · 11 matches

Comerciantes Unidos away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.81 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Cristal attack 2.72 + Comerciantes Unidos defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 2.27

Comerciantes Unidos attack 0.96 + Sporting Cristal defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Sporting Cristal scores more

65%

level

19%

Comerciantes Unidos scores more

16%

Sporting Cristal at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Sporting Cristal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

M. Cauteruccio

Sporting Cristal · F

9.2

Match Events

23'

30'

41'

51'

58'

I. Regalado← P. Magallanes

62'

J. Alarcón← Gustavo Cazonatti

63'

M. Castro← F. Pacheco

72'

C. Villanueva← G. Alfaro

73'

M. Cauteruccio↳ M. Castro

79'

J. Lora← L. Sosa

79'

S. Gonzales← E. Páucar

79'

K. Paico← O. Pinto

79'

J. Inga← J. Parodi

80'

M. Távara← C. Gonzáles

82'

L. Iberico← M. Cauteruccio

85'

S. González↳ L. Iberico

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportingComerciantes

Overview

68%Possession32%

24Total Shots6

9Corners1

14Fouls13

Shots

24Total Shots6

15On Target2

4Off Target4

5Blocked0

16Inside Box2

8Outside Box4

Passing

68%Possession32%

421Total Passes210

359Accurate Passes147

85%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

3Saves12

Discipline

14Fouls13

0Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0

Primera División: Sporting Cristal 3–0 Comerciantes Unidos

Sporting Cristal beat Comerciantes Unidos 3-0 in Primera División on November 3, 2024.

Goals: M. Cauteruccio (41', 73'), S. González (85').

Sporting Cristal controlled possession (68%) and registered 24 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio Alberto Gallardo in Lima.

Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos — Primera División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera División: Sporting Cristal 3–0 Comerciantes Unidos