Comerciantes Unidos 1–4 Sporting Cristal

Comerciantes Unidos

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Sporting Cristal

M. Sen 45' (pen)

M. Castro 83'

I. Avila 72', 68'

S. Gonzalez 4'

11/1/2025

Primera División · Clausura - 17Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Comerciantes Unidos34%

×Draw27%

Sporting Cristal39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Comerciantes UnidosExpected goals in this matchSporting Cristal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.31

Comerciantes Unidos

1.21

Sporting Cristal

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

0.96

creates per match

1.32

1.31

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Comerciantes Unidos

0.96

Sporting Cristal

1.32

allows per match

Comerciantes Unidos

1.31

Sporting Cristal

1.45

-0.04on par

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

Comerciantes Unidos-0.04on par

Sporting Cristal+0.14scores more

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comerciantes Unidos ↓

Sporting Cristal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Comerciantes Unidos or draw

61%

Comerciantes Unidos or Sporting Cristal

73%

Draw or Sporting Cristal

66%

Winning margin

Comerciantes Unidos wins by 2+

14%

Sporting Cristal wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Comerciantes Unidos 1+ goals

70%

Comerciantes Unidos 2+ goals

34%

Comerciantes Unidos 3+ goals

12%

Sporting Cristal 1+ goals

73%

Sporting Cristal 2+ goals

38%

Sporting Cristal 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Comerciantes Unidos (draw refunded)

47%

Sporting Cristal (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comerciantes Unidos at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

Sporting Cristal away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.45 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comerciantes Unidos attack 0.96 + Sporting Cristal defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.21

Sporting Cristal attack 1.32 + Comerciantes Unidos defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Comerciantes Unidos scores more

34%

level

27%

Sporting Cristal scores more

39%

Sporting Cristal at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sporting Cristal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

S. Gonzalez

Sporting Cristal · M

8.5

Match Events

3'

Flavio Alcedo

4'

S. Gonzalez

14'

Irven ÁvilaGoal cancelled

16'

Nahuel Tecilla

22'

Irven Ávila

45'

M. SenPenalty

55'

Paolo Méndez

55'

Paolo MéndezCard upgrade

68'

I. Avila↳ J. Pretell

69'

Y. Vilchez← G. E. Alfaro Martinez

72'

I. Avila↳ S. Gonzalez

75'

M. P. Carpio Ferro← J. Parodi

75'

N. Pasquini← I. Avila

75'

L. Sosa← L. Abram

80'

Leandro SosaGoal cancelled

81'

R. Chipao← J. Marina

81'

C. Cabellos← Y. Yotun

81'

C. Benavente← I. Wisdom

83'

M. Castro↳ L. Sosa

88'

J. Moretti← M. Castro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ComerciantesSporting

Overview

35%Possession65%

11Total Shots20

1.75Expected Goals (xG)2.17

6Corners6

7Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots20

5On Target10

3Off Target6

3Blocked4

5Inside Box12

6Outside Box8

Passing

35%Possession65%

267Total Passes499

200Accurate Passes446

75%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

6Saves4

Discipline

7Fouls12

2Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

2Offsides6