Sporting Cristal 0–1 Club Deportivo Los Chankas

Sporting Cristal

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

P. Bueno 33'

10/26/2025

Primera División · Clausura - 16Estadio Alberto Gallardo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Sporting Cristal67%

×Draw20%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas14%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting CristalExpected goals in this matchClub Deportivo Los Chankas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

0.84

Sporting Cristal

2.12

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

0.84

Sporting Cristal creates 152% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 43 away

2.40

creates per match

0.86

0.82

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Sporting Cristal

2.40

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

0.86

allows per match

Sporting Cristal

0.82

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Cristal+0.00on par

Club Deportivo Los Chankas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Cristal ↓

Club Deportivo Los Chankas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Sporting Cristal or draw

86%

Sporting Cristal or Club Deportivo Los Chankas

80%

Draw or Club Deportivo Los Chankas

33%

Winning margin

Sporting Cristal wins by 2+

42%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Sporting Cristal 1+ goals

88%

Sporting Cristal 2+ goals

62%

Sporting Cristal 3+ goals

35%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1+ goals

57%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2+ goals

21%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Sporting Cristal (draw refunded)

83%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Cristal at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.82 · 45 matches

Club Deportivo Los Chankas away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.84 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Cristal attack 2.40 + Club Deportivo Los Chankas defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.12

Club Deportivo Los Chankas attack 0.86 + Sporting Cristal defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Sporting Cristal scores more

67%

level

20%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas scores more

14%

Sporting Cristal at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Sporting Cristal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

H. Camacho

Club Deportivo Los Chankas · G

9.3

Match Events

-5'

Fred Zamalloa

18'

Franco Torres

27'

Alejandro Pósito

33'

P. Bueno↳ A. Quintana

46'

C. Gonzales← M. Castro

46'

D. Otoya← I. Avila

58'

L. Sosa← C. Benavente

58'

N. Pasquini← A. J. Posito Olazabal

58'

A. Quiroz← F. Torres

59'

Diego Otoya

66'

I. Camargo← P. Bueno

68'

José Miguel Manzaneda

73'

Christofer Gonzáles

75'

M. Rodriguez← J. Moretti

85'

Rafael Lutiger

89'

Jordan Guivin

90+3'

Jorge Palomino

90+6'

B. Rivero← J. Manzaneda

90+6'

K. Sanchez← J. Palomino

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportingClub

Overview

76%Possession24%

35Total Shots9

4.07Expected Goals (xG)1.17

18Corners2

10Fouls19

Shots

35Total Shots9

11On Target3

11Off Target3

13Blocked3

24Inside Box6

11Outside Box3

Passing

76%Possession24%

526Total Passes171

465Accurate Passes100

88%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

2Saves10

Discipline

10Fouls19

4Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

0Offsides1