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Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Sporting Cristal — Primera División 2018

Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Sporting Cristal
Sporting Cristal
J. Manzaneda 77', 45+5'
C. López 72' (pen)
M. Cauteruccio 90' (pen), 63', 40' (pen)
7/31/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 4Estadio Los Chankas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Club Deportivo Los Chankas40%
×Draw25%
Sporting Cristal36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1.48
Sporting Cristal
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 156 away

creates per match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1.74
Sporting Cristal
1.79

allows per match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas
0.98
Sporting Cristal
1.23

finishing

Club Deportivo Los Chankas+0.00on par
Sporting Cristal+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Deportivo Los Chankas ↓

Sporting Cristal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Club Deportivo Los Chankas or draw
64%
Club Deportivo Los Chankas or Sporting Cristal
75%
Draw or Sporting Cristal
60%

Winning margin

Club Deportivo Los Chankas wins by 2+
19%
Sporting Cristal wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1+ goals
77%
Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2+ goals
43%
Club Deportivo Los Chankas 3+ goals
19%
Sporting Cristal 1+ goals
75%
Sporting Cristal 2+ goals
40%
Sporting Cristal 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Club Deportivo Los Chankas (draw refunded)
53%
Sporting Cristal (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Deportivo Los Chankas at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.98 · 43 matches

Sporting Cristal away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.23 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas attack 1.74 + Sporting Cristal defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.48

Sporting Cristal attack 1.79 + Club Deportivo Los Chankas defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Club Deportivo Los Chankas scores more
40%
level
25%
Sporting Cristal scores more
36%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Club Deportivo Los Chankas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
M. CauteruccioSporting CristalSporting Cristal · F
8.6

Match Events

10'
Carlos López Vanegas
36'
Fernando PachecoPenalty confirmed
40'
M. CauteruccioPenalty
45+5'
J. Manzaneda↳ C. López
46'
J. Alarcón← J. Pretell
46'
F. Romero← F. Pacheco
46'
M. Távara← L. Sosa
58'
O. Takeuchi← A. Casquete
60'
Gustavo Cazonatti
63'
M. Cauteruccio
68'
Franco Romero
72'
C. LópezPenalty
73'
A. Robles← D. Carabaño
73'
E. Mogollón← A. Chávez
77'
Í. Ávila← A. Pósito
77'
J. Manzaneda↳ C. López
83'
Cristian Mejia
84'
G. Sánchez← Á. Ledesma
84'
R. Salinas← C. López
84'
A. Ascues← Gustavo Cazonatti
90+8'
Franco Romero
90+8'
Franco Romero
90'
M. CauteruccioPenalty

Possession

56%Club

Shots

18Club

Pass accuracy

53%Club

Statistics

ClubSporting
Overview
56%Possession44%
18Total Shots6
9Corners3
11Fouls12
Shots
18Total Shots6
7On Target6
7Off Target0
4Blocked0
10Inside Box4
8Outside Box2
Passing
56%Possession44%
351Total Passes285
290Accurate Passes214
83%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
11Fouls12
2Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Sporting Cristal

Club Deportivo Los Chankas and Sporting Cristal drew 3-3 in Primera División on July 31, 2024.

Goals: M. Cauteruccio (40' pen, 63', 90' pen), J. Manzaneda (45+5', 77'), C. López (72' pen).

Club Deportivo Los Chankas controlled possession (56%) and registered 18 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio Los Chankas in Andahuaylas.