Sporting Cristal 3–2 Carlos A. Mannucci

Sporting Cristal

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Carlos A. Mannucci

7/15/2023

Primera División · Clausura - 4Estadio Alberto Gallardo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Sporting Cristal59%

×Draw22%

Carlos A. Mannucci19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting CristalExpected goals in this matchCarlos A. Mannucci

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

0.98

Sporting Cristal

1.92

Carlos A. Mannucci

0.98

Sporting Cristal creates 96% more chances

Season form · 152 home / 95 away

2.24

creates per match

1.16

0.80

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Sporting Cristal

2.24

Carlos A. Mannucci

1.16

allows per match

Sporting Cristal

0.80

Carlos A. Mannucci

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Cristal+0.00on par

Carlos A. Mannucci+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Cristal ↓

Carlos A. Mannucci →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Sporting Cristal or draw

81%

Sporting Cristal or Carlos A. Mannucci

78%

Draw or Carlos A. Mannucci

41%

Winning margin

Sporting Cristal wins by 2+

35%

Carlos A. Mannucci wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Sporting Cristal 1+ goals

85%

Sporting Cristal 2+ goals

57%

Sporting Cristal 3+ goals

30%

Carlos A. Mannucci 1+ goals

62%

Carlos A. Mannucci 2+ goals

26%

Carlos A. Mannucci 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sporting Cristal (draw refunded)

76%

Carlos A. Mannucci (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Cristal at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.80 · 152 matches

Carlos A. Mannucci away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.59 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Cristal attack 2.24 + Carlos A. Mannucci defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.92

Carlos A. Mannucci attack 1.16 + Sporting Cristal defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Sporting Cristal scores more

59%

level

22%

Carlos A. Mannucci scores more

19%

Sporting Cristal at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Sporting Cristal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff