Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Carlos A. Mannucci vs Sporting Cristal — Primera División 2026

Carlos A. Mannucci
Carlos A. Mannucci
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Sporting Cristal
Sporting Cristal
2/24/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 5Estadio Mansiche

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Carlos A. Mannucci30%
×Draw25%
Sporting Cristal45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carlos A. Mannucci
1.18
Sporting Cristal
1.52

Sporting Cristal creates 29% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 156 away

creates per match

Carlos A. Mannucci
1.13
Sporting Cristal
1.79

allows per match

Carlos A. Mannucci
1.24
Sporting Cristal
1.23

finishing

Carlos A. Mannucci+0.00on par
Sporting Cristal+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlos A. Mannucci ↓

Sporting Cristal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Carlos A. Mannucci or draw
55%
Carlos A. Mannucci or Sporting Cristal
75%
Draw or Sporting Cristal
70%

Winning margin

Carlos A. Mannucci wins by 2+
12%
Sporting Cristal wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Carlos A. Mannucci 1+ goals
69%
Carlos A. Mannucci 2+ goals
33%
Carlos A. Mannucci 3+ goals
12%
Sporting Cristal 1+ goals
78%
Sporting Cristal 2+ goals
45%
Sporting Cristal 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Carlos A. Mannucci (draw refunded)
40%
Sporting Cristal (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlos A. Mannucci at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.24 · 99 matches

Sporting Cristal away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.23 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlos A. Mannucci attack 1.13 + Sporting Cristal defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.18

Sporting Cristal attack 1.79 + Carlos A. Mannucci defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Carlos A. Mannucci scores more
30%
level
25%
Sporting Cristal scores more
45%

Sporting Cristal at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sporting Cristal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Carlos A. Mannucci 0–4 Sporting Cristal

Sporting Cristal beat Carlos A. Mannucci 4-0 in Primera División on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Mansiche in Trujillo.