Sporting Cristal 2–1 Atletico Grau: Result & Stats

Sporting Cristal

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Atletico Grau

7/13/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 19Estadio Alberto Gallardo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Sporting Cristal60%

×Draw23%

Atletico Grau17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting CristalExpected goals in this matchAtletico Grau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.84

Sporting Cristal

1.81

Atletico Grau

0.84

Sporting Cristal creates 115% more chances

Season form · 153 home / 94 away

2.24

creates per match

0.86

0.82

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Sporting Cristal

2.24

Atletico Grau

0.86

allows per match

Sporting Cristal

0.82

Atletico Grau

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Cristal+0.00on par

Atletico Grau+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Cristal ↓

Atletico Grau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sporting Cristal or draw

83%

Sporting Cristal or Atletico Grau

77%

Draw or Atletico Grau

40%

Winning margin

Sporting Cristal wins by 2+

35%

Atletico Grau wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Sporting Cristal 1+ goals

84%

Sporting Cristal 2+ goals

54%

Sporting Cristal 3+ goals

27%

Atletico Grau 1+ goals

57%

Atletico Grau 2+ goals

21%

Atletico Grau 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Sporting Cristal (draw refunded)

78%

Atletico Grau (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Cristal at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.82 · 153 matches

Atletico Grau away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.38 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Cristal attack 2.24 + Atletico Grau defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.81

Atletico Grau attack 0.86 + Sporting Cristal defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Sporting Cristal scores more

60%

level

23%

Atletico Grau scores more

17%

Sporting Cristal at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Sporting Cristal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff