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Atletico Grau vs Sporting Cristal — Primera División 2026

Atletico Grau
Atletico Grau
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sporting Cristal
Sporting Cristal
4/22/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 10Estadio Campeones del 36

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Atletico Grau37%
×Draw25%
Sporting Cristal38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Grau
1.38
Sporting Cristal
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 156 away

creates per match

Atletico Grau
1.53
Sporting Cristal
1.79

allows per match

Atletico Grau
1.01
Sporting Cristal
1.23

finishing

Atletico Grau+0.00on par
Sporting Cristal+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Grau ↓

Sporting Cristal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Atletico Grau or draw
62%
Atletico Grau or Sporting Cristal
75%
Draw or Sporting Cristal
63%

Winning margin

Atletico Grau wins by 2+
17%
Sporting Cristal wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Atletico Grau 1+ goals
75%
Atletico Grau 2+ goals
40%
Atletico Grau 3+ goals
16%
Sporting Cristal 1+ goals
75%
Sporting Cristal 2+ goals
41%
Sporting Cristal 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Atletico Grau (draw refunded)
49%
Sporting Cristal (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Grau at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.01 · 92 matches

Sporting Cristal away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.23 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Grau attack 1.53 + Sporting Cristal defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.38

Sporting Cristal attack 1.79 + Atletico Grau defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Atletico Grau scores more
37%
level
25%
Sporting Cristal scores more
38%

Sporting Cristal at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sporting Cristal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atletico Grau vs Sporting Cristal

Atletico Grau beat Sporting Cristal 4-1 in Primera División on April 22, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Campeones del 36 in Sullana.