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Sporting Cristal vs Always Ready — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Sporting Cristal
Sporting Cristal
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Always Ready
Always Ready
2/28/2024CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · 2nd RoundEstadio Nacional de Lima

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Sporting Cristal59%
×Draw23%
Always Ready18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Cristal
1.84
Always Ready
0.91

Sporting Cristal creates 102% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 11 away

creates per match

Sporting Cristal
1.23
Always Ready
0.64

allows per match

Sporting Cristal
1.18
Always Ready
2.45

finishing

Sporting Cristal+0.00on par
Always Ready+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Cristal ↓

Always Ready →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sporting Cristal or draw
82%
Sporting Cristal or Always Ready
77%
Draw or Always Ready
41%

Winning margin

Sporting Cristal wins by 2+
34%
Always Ready wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sporting Cristal 1+ goals
84%
Sporting Cristal 2+ goals
55%
Sporting Cristal 3+ goals
28%
Always Ready 1+ goals
60%
Always Ready 2+ goals
23%
Always Ready 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sporting Cristal (draw refunded)
76%
Always Ready (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Cristal at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.18 · 22 matches

Always Ready away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Cristal attack 1.23 + Always Ready defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 1.84

Always Ready attack 0.64 + Sporting Cristal defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Sporting Cristal scores more
59%
level
23%
Always Ready scores more
18%

Sporting Cristal at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Sporting Cristal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Sporting Cristal 3–1 Always Ready

Sporting Cristal beat Always Ready 3-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on February 28, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Nacional de Lima in Lima.