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Always Ready vs Sporting Cristal — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Always Ready
Always Ready
FT
6 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Sporting Cristal
Sporting Cristal
2/21/2024CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · 2nd RoundEstadio Municipal El Alto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Always Ready63%
×Draw21%
Sporting Cristal17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Always Ready
2.06
Sporting Cristal
0.96

Always Ready creates 115% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 24 away

creates per match

Always Ready
1.83
Sporting Cristal
0.92

allows per match

Always Ready
1.00
Sporting Cristal
2.29

finishing

Always Ready+0.00on par
Sporting Cristal+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Always Ready ↓

Sporting Cristal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Always Ready or draw
83%
Always Ready or Sporting Cristal
79%
Draw or Sporting Cristal
37%

Winning margin

Always Ready wins by 2+
39%
Sporting Cristal wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Always Ready 1+ goals
87%
Always Ready 2+ goals
61%
Always Ready 3+ goals
34%
Sporting Cristal 1+ goals
62%
Sporting Cristal 2+ goals
25%
Sporting Cristal 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Always Ready (draw refunded)
79%
Sporting Cristal (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Always Ready at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

Sporting Cristal away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.29 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Always Ready attack 1.83 + Sporting Cristal defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.06

Sporting Cristal attack 0.92 + Always Ready defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Always Ready scores more
63%
level
21%
Sporting Cristal scores more
17%

Always Ready at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Always Ready will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Always Ready vs Sporting Cristal

Always Ready beat Sporting Cristal 6-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on February 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Alto in El Alto.