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Sporting CP W vs Racing Seixal W — 1a Divisão - Women 2022

Sporting CP W
Sporting CP W
FT
2 – 1
Racing Seixal W
Racing Seixal W
10/8/20231a Divisão - Women1a Divisão - Women · Round 3CGD Stadium Aurélio Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Sporting CP W58%
×Draw22%
Racing Seixal W20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting CP W
1.98
Racing Seixal W
1.07

Sporting CP W creates 85% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 22 away

creates per match

Sporting CP W
2.88
Racing Seixal W
1.55

allows per match

Sporting CP W
0.60
Racing Seixal W
1.09

finishing

Sporting CP W+0.00on par
Racing Seixal W+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP W ↓

Racing Seixal W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sporting CP W or draw
80%
Sporting CP W or Racing Seixal W
78%
Draw or Racing Seixal W
42%

Winning margin

Sporting CP W wins by 2+
35%
Racing Seixal W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sporting CP W 1+ goals
86%
Sporting CP W 2+ goals
59%
Sporting CP W 3+ goals
31%
Racing Seixal W 1+ goals
66%
Racing Seixal W 2+ goals
29%
Racing Seixal W 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP W (draw refunded)
74%
Racing Seixal W (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP W at home — creates 2.88, concedes 0.60 · 42 matches

Racing Seixal W away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.09 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP W attack 2.88 + Racing Seixal W defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.98

Racing Seixal W attack 1.55 + Sporting CP W defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Sporting CP W scores more
58%
level
22%
Racing Seixal W scores more
20%

Sporting CP W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Sporting CP W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1a Divisão - Women: Sporting CP W 2–1 Racing Seixal W

Sporting CP W beat Racing Seixal W 2-1 in 1a Divisão - Women on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at CGD Stadium Aurélio Pereira in Alcochete.