Racing Seixal W 1–0 Sporting CP W: Result & Stats

Racing Seixal W

FT

1 – 0

Sporting CP W

2/18/2024

1a Divisão - Women · Round 14Estádio Nacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Racing Seixal W25%

×Draw25%

Sporting CP W51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing Seixal WExpected goals in this matchSporting CP W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.65

Racing Seixal W

1.08

Sporting CP W

1.65

Sporting CP W creates 53% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 42 away

1.59

creates per match

2.74

0.55

allows per match

0.57

creates per match

Racing Seixal W

1.59

Sporting CP W

2.74

allows per match

Racing Seixal W

0.55

Sporting CP W

0.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Seixal W+0.00on par

Sporting CP W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Seixal W ↓

Sporting CP W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Racing Seixal W or draw

49%

Racing Seixal W or Sporting CP W

75%

Draw or Sporting CP W

75%

Winning margin

Racing Seixal W wins by 2+

9%

Sporting CP W wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Racing Seixal W 1+ goals

66%

Racing Seixal W 2+ goals

29%

Racing Seixal W 3+ goals

10%

Sporting CP W 1+ goals

81%

Sporting CP W 2+ goals

49%

Sporting CP W 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Racing Seixal W (draw refunded)

33%

Sporting CP W (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Seixal W at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.55 · 22 matches

Sporting CP W away — creates 2.74, concedes 0.57 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Seixal W attack 1.59 + Sporting CP W defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.08

Sporting CP W attack 2.74 + Racing Seixal W defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Racing Seixal W scores more

25%

level

25%

Sporting CP W scores more

51%

Sporting CP W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sporting CP W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff