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Sporting CP vs Portimonense — Primeira Liga 2018

Sporting CP
Sporting CP
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Portimonense
Portimonense
5/4/2024Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 32Estádio José Alvalade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Sporting CP67%
×Draw20%
Portimonense13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting CP
2.05
Portimonense
0.77

Sporting CP creates 166% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 103 away

creates per match

Sporting CP
2.36
Portimonense
0.87

allows per match

Sporting CP
0.67
Portimonense
1.74

finishing

Sporting CP+0.00on par
Portimonense+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP ↓

Portimonense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sporting CP or draw
87%
Sporting CP or Portimonense
80%
Draw or Portimonense
33%

Winning margin

Sporting CP wins by 2+
42%
Portimonense wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sporting CP 1+ goals
87%
Sporting CP 2+ goals
61%
Sporting CP 3+ goals
33%
Portimonense 1+ goals
54%
Portimonense 2+ goals
18%
Portimonense 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP (draw refunded)
84%
Portimonense (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP at home — creates 2.36, concedes 0.67 · 136 matches

Portimonense away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.74 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP attack 2.36 + Portimonense defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 2.05

Portimonense attack 0.87 + Sporting CP defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Sporting CP scores more
67%
level
20%
Portimonense scores more
13%

Sporting CP at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Sporting CP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Sporting CP 3–0 Portimonense

Sporting CP beat Portimonense 3-0 in Primeira Liga on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio José Alvalade in Lisboa.