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Portimonense vs Sporting CP — Taça de Portugal 2018

Portimonense
Portimonense
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sporting CP
Sporting CP
10/18/2024Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio Municipal de Portimão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Portimonense14%
×Draw17%
Sporting CP68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portimonense
1.07
Sporting CP
2.52

Sporting CP creates 136% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 19 away

creates per match

Portimonense
1.25
Sporting CP
2.05

allows per match

Portimonense
3.00
Sporting CP
0.89

finishing

Portimonense+0.00on par
Sporting CP+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portimonense ↓

Sporting CP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Portimonense or draw
32%
Portimonense or Sporting CP
83%
Draw or Sporting CP
86%

Winning margin

Portimonense wins by 2+
5%
Sporting CP wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Portimonense 1+ goals
66%
Portimonense 2+ goals
29%
Portimonense 3+ goals
9%
Sporting CP 1+ goals
92%
Sporting CP 2+ goals
71%
Sporting CP 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Portimonense (draw refunded)
17%
Sporting CP (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portimonense at home — creates 1.25, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

Sporting CP away — creates 2.05, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portimonense attack 1.25 + Sporting CP defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.07

Sporting CP attack 2.05 + Portimonense defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Portimonense scores more
14%
level
17%
Sporting CP scores more
68%

Sporting CP at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Sporting CP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portimonense vs Sporting CP

Sporting CP beat Portimonense 2-1 in Taça de Portugal on October 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Portimão in Portimão.