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Sporting CP vs Maritimo — Primeira Liga 2026

Sporting CP
Sporting CP
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Maritimo
Maritimo
Pedro Porro 90+8' (pen)
9/24/2021Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 7Estádio José Alvalade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Sporting CP67%
×Draw20%
Maritimo13%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting CP
2.02
Maritimo
0.73

Sporting CP creates 177% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 85 away

creates per match

Sporting CP
2.38
Maritimo
0.79

allows per match

Sporting CP
0.66
Maritimo
1.67

finishing

Sporting CP+0.00on par
Maritimo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP ↓

Maritimo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sporting CP or draw
87%
Sporting CP or Maritimo
80%
Draw or Maritimo
33%

Winning margin

Sporting CP wins by 2+
42%
Maritimo wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sporting CP 1+ goals
87%
Sporting CP 2+ goals
60%
Sporting CP 3+ goals
33%
Maritimo 1+ goals
52%
Maritimo 2+ goals
17%
Maritimo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP (draw refunded)
84%
Maritimo (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.66 · 134 matches

Maritimo away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.67 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP attack 2.38 + Maritimo defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.02

Maritimo attack 0.79 + Sporting CP defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Sporting CP scores more
67%
level
20%
Maritimo scores more
13%

Sporting CP at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Sporting CP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24
Pedro PorroSporting CPSporting CP · M
8.2

Match Events

28'
Fábio China
56'
Paulo Victor
57'
Zouhair Feddal
58'
Tiago Tomás← Rúben Vinagre
60'
Luís Neto
69'
A. Alipour← Ricardinho
71'
Jovane Cabral← Pablo Sarabia
71'
Daniel Bragança← Matheus Nunes
73'
Ivan Rossi
77'
Sebastián Coates
78'
Vítor Costa← Fábio China
78'
Diogo Mendes← I. Rossi
82'
Pedro Pelágio
82'
Bruno Tabata← João Palhinha
82'
Ricardo Esgaio← Luís Carlos
85'
Clésio← André Vidigal
85'
Edgar Costa← Bruno Xadas
90+2'
Ricardo Esgaio
90+4'
Paulo Victor
90+3'
Diogo Mendes
90+4'
Paulo Victor
90+8'
Pedro PorroPenalty

Possession

72%Sporting

Shots

25Sporting

Pass accuracy

58%Sporting

Statistics

SportingMaritimo
Overview
72%Possession28%
25Total Shots4
9Corners0
14Fouls14
Shots
25Total Shots4
7On Target0
9Off Target4
9Blocked0
19Inside Box2
6Outside Box2
Passing
72%Possession28%
660Total Passes270
572Accurate Passes168
87%Pass Accuracy62%
Goalkeeping
0Saves6
Discipline
14Fouls14
4Yellow Cards6
0Red Cards1
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Sporting CP vs Maritimo

Sporting CP beat Maritimo 1-0 in Primeira Liga on September 24, 2021.

Goals: Pedro Porro (90+8' pen).

Sporting CP controlled possession (72%) and registered 25 shots to 4.

The match was played at Estádio José Alvalade in Lisboa.