Maritimo vs Sporting CP — Primeira Liga 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 83+ matches
Maritimo24%
Sporting CP52%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Sporting CP creates 60% more chances
Season form · 83 home / 138 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Maritimo ↓
Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Maritimo at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.17 · 83 matches
Sporting CP away — creates 2.07, concedes 0.96 · 138 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Maritimo attack 1.06 + Sporting CP defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.01
Sporting CP attack 2.07 + Maritimo defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.62
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 52%?"
Sporting CP at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 52% does not mean "Sporting CP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
FC PortoSporting CP
Benfica
SC Braga
Famalicao
GIL Vicente
Moreirense
Guimaraes
Arouca
Estoril
Alverca
Santa Clara
Rio Ave
Nacional
Casa Pia
Estrela
Tondela
AVS
TorreenseIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Maritimo host Sporting CP on Sunday, 8 January 2023 at 18:00. The match is part of the Primeira Liga 2026/2027 season.
Primeira Liga: Maritimo 1–0 Sporting CP
Maritimo beat Sporting CP 1-0 in Primeira Liga on January 8, 2023.
Goals: Cláudio Winck (56' pen).
Sporting CP controlled possession (65%) and registered 10 shots to 9.
The match was played at Estádio dos Barreiros in Ilha da Madeira.