Sporting CP 5–1 Estrela: Result & Stats

Sporting CP

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Estrela

11/1/2024

Primeira Liga · Round 10Estádio José Alvalade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Sporting CP64%

×Draw21%

Estrela15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting CPExpected goals in this matchEstrela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

0.83

Sporting CP

1.99

Estrela

0.83

Sporting CP creates 140% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 19 away

2.26

creates per match

0.92

0.74

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Sporting CP

2.26

Estrela

0.92

allows per match

Sporting CP

0.74

Estrela

1.73

+0.74scores more than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Sporting CP+0.74scores more

Estrela+0.03on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP ↓

Estrela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Sporting CP or draw

85%

Sporting CP or Estrela

79%

Draw or Estrela

36%

Winning margin

Sporting CP wins by 2+

39%

Estrela wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Sporting CP 1+ goals

86%

Sporting CP 2+ goals

59%

Sporting CP 3+ goals

32%

Estrela 1+ goals

56%

Estrela 2+ goals

20%

Estrela 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP (draw refunded)

81%

Estrela (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.74 · 17 matches

Estrela away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.73 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP attack 2.26 + Estrela defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.99

Estrela attack 0.92 + Sporting CP defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Sporting CP scores more

64%

level

21%

Estrela scores more

15%

Sporting CP at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Sporting CP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff