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Estrela vs Sporting CP — Primeira Liga 2018

Estrela
Estrela
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Sporting CP
Sporting CP
3/29/2024Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 27Estádio José Gomes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Estrela27%
×Draw26%
Sporting CP47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estrela
1.08
Sporting CP
1.50

Sporting CP creates 39% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 14 away

creates per match

Estrela
1.34
Sporting CP
1.61

allows per match

Estrela
1.40
Sporting CP
0.81

finishing

Estrela-0.18scores less
Sporting CP+0.68scores more

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estrela ↓

Sporting CP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Estrela or draw
53%
Estrela or Sporting CP
74%
Draw or Sporting CP
73%

Winning margin

Estrela wins by 2+
10%
Sporting CP wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Estrela 1+ goals
66%
Estrela 2+ goals
29%
Estrela 3+ goals
10%
Sporting CP 1+ goals
78%
Sporting CP 2+ goals
44%
Sporting CP 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Estrela (draw refunded)
37%
Sporting CP (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estrela at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.40 · 19 matches

Sporting CP away — creates 1.61, concedes 0.81 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estrela attack 1.34 + Sporting CP defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.08

Sporting CP attack 1.61 + Estrela defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Estrela scores more
27%
level
26%
Sporting CP scores more
47%

Sporting CP at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sporting CP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Estrela 1–2 Sporting CP

Sporting CP beat Estrela 2-1 in Primeira Liga on March 29, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio José Gomes in Amadora.