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Sporting CP vs Casa Pia — Primeira Liga 2018

Sporting CP
Sporting CP
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Casa Pia
Casa Pia
10/5/2024Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 8Estádio José Alvalade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Sporting CP64%
×Draw21%
Casa Pia15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting CP
1.97
Casa Pia
0.81

Sporting CP creates 143% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 14 away

creates per match

Sporting CP
2.26
Casa Pia
0.89

allows per match

Sporting CP
0.74
Casa Pia
1.68

finishing

Sporting CP+0.74scores more
Casa Pia-0.18scores less

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP ↓

Casa Pia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sporting CP or draw
85%
Sporting CP or Casa Pia
79%
Draw or Casa Pia
36%

Winning margin

Sporting CP wins by 2+
39%
Casa Pia wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sporting CP 1+ goals
86%
Sporting CP 2+ goals
58%
Sporting CP 3+ goals
31%
Casa Pia 1+ goals
56%
Casa Pia 2+ goals
19%
Casa Pia 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP (draw refunded)
81%
Casa Pia (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.74 · 17 matches

Casa Pia away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.68 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP attack 2.26 + Casa Pia defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.97

Casa Pia attack 0.89 + Sporting CP defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Sporting CP scores more
64%
level
21%
Casa Pia scores more
15%

Sporting CP at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Sporting CP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Sporting CP 2–0 Casa Pia

Sporting CP beat Casa Pia 2-0 in Primeira Liga on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio José Alvalade in Lisboa.