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Casa Pia vs Sporting CP — Primeira Liga 2026

Casa Pia
Casa Pia
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Sporting CP
Sporting CP
Ricardo Esgaio 45' (OG)
V. Gyökeres 77' (pen), 34'
Gonçalo Inácio 12'
3/9/2025Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 25Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Casa Pia19%
×Draw24%
Sporting CP57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Casa Pia
0.83
Sporting CP
1.67

Sporting CP creates 101% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 15 away

creates per match

Casa Pia
0.88
Sporting CP
1.66

allows per match

Casa Pia
1.67
Sporting CP
0.79

finishing

Casa Pia+0.29scores more
Sporting CP+0.67scores more

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Casa Pia ↓

Sporting CP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–114%
0–211%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Casa Pia or draw
43%
Casa Pia or Sporting CP
76%
Draw or Sporting CP
81%

Winning margin

Casa Pia wins by 2+
6%
Sporting CP wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Casa Pia 1+ goals
56%
Casa Pia 2+ goals
20%
Casa Pia 3+ goals
5%
Sporting CP 1+ goals
81%
Sporting CP 2+ goals
50%
Sporting CP 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Casa Pia (draw refunded)
24%
Sporting CP (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Casa Pia at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

Sporting CP away — creates 1.66, concedes 0.79 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Casa Pia attack 0.88 + Sporting CP defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.83

Sporting CP attack 1.66 + Casa Pia defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Casa Pia scores more
19%
level
24%
Sporting CP scores more
57%

Sporting CP at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sporting CP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
V. GyökeresSporting CPSporting CP · F
8.3

Match Events

6'
Gonçalo Inácio
12'
Gonçalo Inácio↳ Geovany Quenda
28'
Pablo
34'
V. Gyökeres↳ M. Hjulmand
45'
Ricardo EsgaioOwn goal
48'
Duplexe Tchamba
56'
Morten Hjulmand
62'
Ousmane Diomande
64'
Geny Catamo← Geovany Quenda
64'
H. Morita← M. Hjulmand
74'
Francisco TrincãoPenalty confirmed
77'
V. GyökeresPenalty
78'
K. Osundina← Miguel Sousa
79'
Max Svensson← Cauê
79'
M. Araújo← Matheus Reis
86'
Henrique Pereira← Gaizka Larrazabal
86'
I. Mohamed← Pablo Roberto
86'
R. Kluivert← José Fonte
88'
Eduardo Felicíssimo← Ricardo Esgaio
88'
C. Harder← Trincão
90+3'
Max Svensson
90+1'
Rafael Brito

Possession

52%Casa

Shots

10Casa

Pass accuracy

49%Casa

Statistics

CasaSporting
Overview
52%Possession48%
10Total Shots17
0.45Expected Goals (xG)2.32
4Corners4
9Fouls10
Shots
10Total Shots17
3On Target6
5Off Target5
2Blocked6
4Inside Box14
6Outside Box3
Passing
52%Possession48%
414Total Passes386
332Accurate Passes324
80%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
-0.53Goals Prevented-0.53
Discipline
9Fouls10
4Yellow Cards3
2Offsides0

Primeira Liga: Casa Pia 1–3 Sporting CP

Sporting CP beat Casa Pia 3-1 in Primeira Liga on March 9, 2025.

Goals: Gonçalo Inácio (12'), V. Gyökeres (34', 77' pen), Ricardo Esgaio (45' o.g.).

Casa Pia controlled possession (52%) and registered 10 shots to 17.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior in Rio Maior.