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Sporting CP vs Beşiktaş — UEFA Champions League 2018

Sporting CP
Sporting CP
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Beşiktaş
Beşiktaş
11/3/2021UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · Group Stage - 4Estádio José Alvalade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sporting CP71%
×Draw16%
Beşiktaş13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting CP
2.63
Beşiktaş
1.05

Sporting CP creates 150% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 4 away

creates per match

Sporting CP
1.77
Beşiktaş
0.25

allows per match

Sporting CP
1.85
Beşiktaş
3.50

finishing

Sporting CP+0.00on par
Beşiktaş+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP ↓

Beşiktaş →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Sporting CP or draw
87%
Sporting CP or Beşiktaş
84%
Draw or Beşiktaş
29%

Winning margin

Sporting CP wins by 2+
49%
Beşiktaş wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sporting CP 1+ goals
93%
Sporting CP 2+ goals
73%
Sporting CP 3+ goals
48%
Beşiktaş 1+ goals
65%
Beşiktaş 2+ goals
28%
Beşiktaş 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP (draw refunded)
84%
Beşiktaş (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

Beşiktaş away — creates 0.25, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP attack 1.77 + Beşiktaş defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.63

Beşiktaş attack 0.25 + Sporting CP defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Sporting CP scores more
71%
level
16%
Beşiktaş scores more
13%

Sporting CP at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Sporting CP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League: Sporting CP 4–0 Beşiktaş

Sporting CP beat Beşiktaş 4-0 in UEFA Champions League on November 3, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio José Alvalade in Lisboa.