Beşiktaş 1–4 Sporting CP: Result & Stats

Beşiktaş

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Sporting CP

10/19/2021

UEFA Champions League · Group Stage - 3Vodafone Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Beşiktaş26%

×Draw22%

Sporting CP52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BeşiktaşExpected goals in this matchSporting CP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.99

Beşiktaş

1.34

Sporting CP

1.99

Sporting CP creates 49% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 13 away

1.00

creates per match

1.31

2.67

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Beşiktaş

1.00

Sporting CP

1.31

allows per match

Beşiktaş

2.67

Sporting CP

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beşiktaş+0.00on par

Sporting CP+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beşiktaş ↓

Sporting CP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Beşiktaş or draw

48%

Beşiktaş or Sporting CP

78%

Draw or Sporting CP

74%

Winning margin

Beşiktaş wins by 2+

11%

Sporting CP wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Beşiktaş 1+ goals

74%

Beşiktaş 2+ goals

39%

Beşiktaş 3+ goals

15%

Sporting CP 1+ goals

86%

Sporting CP 2+ goals

59%

Sporting CP 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Beşiktaş (draw refunded)

33%

Sporting CP (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beşiktaş at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Sporting CP away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beşiktaş attack 1.00 + Sporting CP defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.34

Sporting CP attack 1.31 + Beşiktaş defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Beşiktaş scores more

26%

level

22%

Sporting CP scores more

52%

Sporting CP at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sporting CP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff