Sporting CP 3–0 AVS: Result & Stats | Primeira Liga

Sporting CP

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

AVS

V. Gyökeres 70', 45+4'

C. Harder 15'

9/22/2024

Primeira Liga · Round 6Estádio José Alvalade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Sporting CP70%

×Draw19%

AVS12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting CPExpected goals in this matchAVS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

0.73

Sporting CP

2.13

AVS

0.73

Sporting CP creates 192% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 14 away

2.26

creates per match

0.73

0.74

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Sporting CP

2.26

AVS

0.73

allows per match

Sporting CP

0.74

AVS

2.00

+0.74scores more than expected

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Sporting CP+0.74scores more

AVS-0.23scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP ↓

AVS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Sporting CP or draw

88%

Sporting CP or AVS

81%

Draw or AVS

30%

Winning margin

Sporting CP wins by 2+

45%

AVS wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Sporting CP 1+ goals

88%

Sporting CP 2+ goals

63%

Sporting CP 3+ goals

35%

AVS 1+ goals

52%

AVS 2+ goals

17%

AVS 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP (draw refunded)

86%

AVS (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.74 · 17 matches

AVS away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP attack 2.26 + AVS defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

AVS attack 0.73 + Sporting CP defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Sporting CP scores more

70%

level

19%

AVS scores more

12%

Sporting CP at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Sporting CP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

V. Gyökeres

Sporting CP · F

9.2

Match Events

15'

C. Harder↳ M. Hjulmand

33'

Conrad HarderPenalty cancelled

39'

Baptiste Roux

45+4'

V. Gyökeres↳ C. Harder

46'

Vasco Lopes← T. Akinsola

46'

Rafael Rodrigues← I. Kamate

51'

Cristian Castro

59'

M. Araújo← C. Harder

64'

Granada← J. Mercado

64'

Luís Silva← Lucas Piazón

65'

Gustavo Assunção

70'

H. Morita← Daniel Bragança

70'

Geny Catamo← Geovany Quenda

70'

V. Gyökeres↳ Trincão

76'

Iván Fresneda← Matheus Reis

76'

Ricardo Esgaio← Trincão

84'

G. Aburjania← Gustavo Assunção

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportingAVS

Overview

64%Possession36%

23Total Shots4

1.57Expected Goals (xG)0.09

9Corners1

11Fouls12

Shots

23Total Shots4

9On Target0

8Off Target3

6Blocked1

21Inside Box1

2Outside Box3

Passing

64%Possession36%

645Total Passes368

589Accurate Passes300

91%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

-0.26Goals Prevented-0.26

Discipline

11Fouls12

0Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Sporting CP vs AVS

Sporting CP beat AVS 3-0 in Primeira Liga on September 22, 2024.

Goals: C. Harder (15'), V. Gyökeres (45+4', 70').

Sporting CP controlled possession (64%) and registered 23 shots to 4.

The match was played at Estádio José Alvalade in Lisboa.

Sporting CP vs AVS — Primeira Liga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Sporting CP vs AVS