AVS vs Sporting CP — Primeira Liga 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 13+ matches
AVS20%
Sporting CP56%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Sporting CP creates 91% more chances
Season form · 13 home / 13 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under54
- Over46
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No54
- Yes46
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
AVS ↓
Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
AVS at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.60 · 13 matches
Sporting CP away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.82 · 13 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
AVS attack 0.91 + Sporting CP defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.86
Sporting CP attack 1.67 + AVS defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.64
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 56%?"
Sporting CP at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 56% does not mean "Sporting CP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
Benfica
FC PortoSporting CP
SC Braga
Guimaraes
Moreirense
Rio Ave
Boavista
Belenenses
Santa Clara
Portimonense
Maritimo
Vitoria Setubal
Aves
Tondela
Chaves
Nacional
FeirenseIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
AVS host Sporting CP on Sunday, 23 February 2025 at 18:00. The match is part of the Primeira Liga 2018/2019 season.
Primeira Liga: AVS 2–2 Sporting CP
AVS and Sporting CP drew 2-2 in Primeira Liga on February 23, 2025.
Goals: O. Diomande (8'), V. Gyökeres (33'), Zé Luís (71' pen), Gustavo Mendonça (90+6').
Sporting CP controlled possession (57%) and registered 9 shots to 11.
The match was played at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves in Vila das Aves.