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Sporting CP vs Aves — Primeira Liga 2018

Sporting CP
Sporting CP
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Aves
Aves
12/9/2018Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 12Estádio José Alvalade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sporting CP70%
×Draw18%
Aves11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting CP
2.18
Aves
0.73

Sporting CP creates 199% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 34 away

creates per match

Sporting CP
2.36
Aves
0.79

allows per match

Sporting CP
0.67
Aves
2.00

finishing

Sporting CP+0.00on par
Aves+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP ↓

Aves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sporting CP or draw
89%
Sporting CP or Aves
82%
Draw or Aves
30%

Winning margin

Sporting CP wins by 2+
46%
Aves wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sporting CP 1+ goals
89%
Sporting CP 2+ goals
64%
Sporting CP 3+ goals
37%
Aves 1+ goals
52%
Aves 2+ goals
17%
Aves 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP (draw refunded)
86%
Aves (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP at home — creates 2.36, concedes 0.67 · 136 matches

Aves away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.00 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP attack 2.36 + Aves defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.18

Aves attack 0.79 + Sporting CP defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Sporting CP scores more
70%
level
18%
Aves scores more
11%

Sporting CP at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Sporting CP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Sporting CP 4–1 Aves

Sporting CP beat Aves 4-1 in Primeira Liga on December 9, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio José Alvalade in Lisbon.