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Aves vs Sporting CP — Primeira Liga 2018

Aves
Aves
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Sporting CP
Sporting CP
4/13/2019Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 29Estádio do CD das Aves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Aves20%
×Draw23%
Sporting CP57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aves
0.95
Sporting CP
1.79

Sporting CP creates 88% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 137 away

creates per match

Aves
0.94
Sporting CP
2.07

allows per match

Aves
1.51
Sporting CP
0.96

finishing

Aves+0.00on par
Sporting CP+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aves ↓

Sporting CP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–112%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Aves or draw
43%
Aves or Sporting CP
77%
Draw or Sporting CP
80%

Winning margin

Aves wins by 2+
7%
Sporting CP wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Aves 1+ goals
61%
Aves 2+ goals
25%
Aves 3+ goals
7%
Sporting CP 1+ goals
83%
Sporting CP 2+ goals
53%
Sporting CP 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Aves (draw refunded)
26%
Sporting CP (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aves at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.51 · 35 matches

Sporting CP away — creates 2.07, concedes 0.96 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aves attack 0.94 + Sporting CP defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.95

Sporting CP attack 2.07 + Aves defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Aves scores more
20%
level
23%
Sporting CP scores more
57%

Sporting CP at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sporting CP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Aves 1–3 Sporting CP

Sporting CP beat Aves 3-1 in Primeira Liga on April 13, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio do CD das Aves in Vila das Aves.