Sporting CP U19 1–2 Beşiktaş U19: Result & Stats

Sporting CP U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Beşiktaş U19

B. Cisse 56' (OG)

A. Demir 20'

K. Yağcı 19'

11/3/2021

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 4CGD Stadium Aurélio Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sporting CP U1961%

×Draw18%

Beşiktaş U1921%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting CP U19Expected goals in this matchBeşiktaş U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.58

1.46

Sporting CP U19

2.58

Beşiktaş U19

1.46

Sporting CP U19 creates 77% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 3 away

1.83

creates per match

1.67

1.25

allows per match

3.33

creates per match

Sporting CP U19

1.83

Beşiktaş U19

1.67

allows per match

Sporting CP U19

1.25

Beşiktaş U19

3.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting CP U19+0.00on par

Beşiktaş U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP U19 ↓

Beşiktaş U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Sporting CP U19 or draw

79%

Sporting CP U19 or Beşiktaş U19

82%

Draw or Beşiktaş U19

39%

Winning margin

Sporting CP U19 wins by 2+

40%

Beşiktaş U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sporting CP U19 1+ goals

92%

Sporting CP U19 2+ goals

72%

Sporting CP U19 3+ goals

47%

Beşiktaş U19 1+ goals

77%

Beşiktaş U19 2+ goals

43%

Beşiktaş U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP U19 (draw refunded)

75%

Beşiktaş U19 (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP U19 at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

Beşiktaş U19 away — creates 1.67, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP U19 attack 1.83 + Beşiktaş U19 defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.58

Beşiktaş U19 attack 1.67 + Sporting CP U19 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Sporting CP U19 scores more

61%

level

18%

Beşiktaş U19 scores more

21%

Sporting CP U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Sporting CP U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

K. Yağcı

20'

A. Demir↳ E. Delibaş

52'

Rodrigo Ribeiro← Mateus Fernandes

56'

B. CisseOwn goal

60'

S. Kılıçsoy← A. Demir

73'

B. S. Yildiz

75'

Samuel Justo← Renato Veiga

75'

Domingos Andrade← Lucas Dias

84'

H. Çiçek← A. Kömeç

84'

Y. Oral← K. Yağcı

86'

Kiko Félix← Dario Essugo

86'

Martim Marques← Youssef Chermiti

90+2'

E. Ilkhan

90+5'

E. Aydemir← E. Delibaş

Sporting

Beşiktaş

1

Bilgin

11

⚽

▼

Demir

3

Terzi

13

Yıldız

15

▼

Kömeç

23

🥅

Cisse

10

A

▼

6

7

8

9

⚽

▼

1

2

14

4

13

16

▼

Essugo

10

▼

Dias

8

Menino

7

▼

Fernandes

6

▼

Veiga

18

▼

Chermiti

Manager: Filipe Pedro

52'▲Rodrigo Ribeiro←▼Mateus Fernandes

75'▲Samuel Justo←▼Renato Veiga

75'▲Domingos Andrade←▼Lucas Dias

86'▲Kiko Félix←▼Dario Essugo

86'▲Martim Marques←▼Youssef Chermiti

Sporting CP U19 substitutes

9Ribeiro17Justo15Andrade11Félix5Marques22Pinto3Pereira

Manager: Ö. Karaveli

60'▲S. Kılıçsoy←▼A. Demir

84'▲H. Çiçek←▼A. Kömeç

84'▲Y. Oral←▼K. Yağcı

90+5'▲E. Aydemir←▼E. Delibaş

Beşiktaş U19 substitutes

18Kılıçsoy22Çiçek19Oral14Aydemir24Korkmaz12Baytekin20Bilikli

UEFA Youth League: Sporting CP U19 1–2 Beşiktaş U19

Beşiktaş U19 beat Sporting CP U19 2-1 in UEFA Youth League on November 3, 2021.

Goals: K. Yağcı (19'), A. Demir (20'), B. Cisse (56' o.g.).

The match was played at CGD Stadium Aurélio Pereira in Alcochete.

Sporting CP U19 vs Beşiktaş U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Sporting CP U19 1–2 Beşiktaş U19