Beşiktaş U19 1–3 Sporting CP U19: Result & Stats

Beşiktaş U19

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Sporting CP U19

E. Delibaş 49'

Samuel Justo 86'

Chico Lamba 60'

Diogo Travassos 40'

10/19/2021

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 3Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Beşiktaş U1917%

×Draw20%

Sporting CP U1963%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beşiktaş U19Expected goals in this matchSporting CP U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

2.21

Beşiktaş U19

1.07

Sporting CP U19

2.21

Sporting CP U19 creates 107% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 13 away

1.00

creates per match

2.08

2.33

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Beşiktaş U19

1.00

Sporting CP U19

2.08

allows per match

Beşiktaş U19

2.33

Sporting CP U19

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beşiktaş U19+0.00on par

Sporting CP U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beşiktaş U19 ↓

Sporting CP U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–29%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Beşiktaş U19 or draw

37%

Beşiktaş U19 or Sporting CP U19

80%

Draw or Sporting CP U19

83%

Winning margin

Beşiktaş U19 wins by 2+

6%

Sporting CP U19 wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Beşiktaş U19 1+ goals

66%

Beşiktaş U19 2+ goals

29%

Beşiktaş U19 3+ goals

9%

Sporting CP U19 1+ goals

89%

Sporting CP U19 2+ goals

65%

Sporting CP U19 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Beşiktaş U19 (draw refunded)

22%

Sporting CP U19 (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beşiktaş U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Sporting CP U19 away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beşiktaş U19 attack 1.00 + Sporting CP U19 defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.07

Sporting CP U19 attack 2.08 + Beşiktaş U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Beşiktaş U19 scores more

17%

level

20%

Sporting CP U19 scores more

63%

Sporting CP U19 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Sporting CP U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

G. Batista

16'

K. Yagci

17'

Emanuel Fernandes← Kiko Félix

37'

G. Esteves

38'

R. Veiga

38'

S. E. Terzi

40'

Diogo Travassos↳ Gonçalo Esteves

44'

O. Agrap

45+3'

O. Agrap

45+3'

O. Agrap

46'

C. Demir← K. Yağcı

49'

E. Delibaş↳ E. İlkhan

60'

Chico Lamba↳ Lucas Dias

70'

S. Kilicsoy

70'

B. Yıldız← E. Tutar

70'

N. Bilgiç← S. Kılıçsoy

73'

Rodrigo Ribeiro← Youssef Chermiti

73'

Diogo Cabral← Lucas Dias

76'

E. Ilkhan

82'

Samuel Justo← Mateus Fernandes

86'

Samuel Justo↳ Diogo Travassos

Beşiktaş

Sporting

1

Calai

2

A

Esteves

14

⚽

Lamba

13

⚽A

Travassos

16

Essugo

10

A

▼

Dias

3

Batista

17

▼

Fernandes

6

Veiga

18

▼

Chermiti

11

▼

Félix

1

Bilgin

14

Aydemir

2

▼

Tutar

3

Terzi

5

Ağrap

10

⚽

Delibaş

6

Vardar

7

A

İlkhan

8

Tıknaz

9

▼

Yağcı

18

▼

Kılıçsoy

Manager: Ö. Karaveli

46'▲C. Demir←▼K. Yağcı

70'▲B. Yıldız←▼E. Tutar

70'▲N. Bilgiç←▼S. Kılıçsoy

Beşiktaş U19 substitutes

11Demir13Yıldız17Bilgiç12Baytekin19Oral15Kömeç20Bilikli

Manager: Filipe Pedro

17'▲Emanuel Fernandes←▼Kiko Félix

73'▲Rodrigo Ribeiro←▼Youssef Chermiti

73'▲Diogo Cabral←▼Lucas Dias

82'▲Samuel Justo←▼Mateus Fernandes

Sporting CP U19 substitutes

4Fernandes9Ribeiro7Cabral8Justo22Pinto5Marques15Andrade

UEFA Youth League: Beşiktaş U19 1–3 Sporting CP U19

Sporting CP U19 beat Beşiktaş U19 3-1 in UEFA Youth League on October 19, 2021.

Goals: Diogo Travassos (40'), E. Delibaş (49'), Chico Lamba (60'), Samuel Justo (86').

The match was played at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu in İstanbul.

Beşiktaş U19 vs Sporting CP U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Beşiktaş U19 1–3 Sporting CP U19