Sporting CP B 3–0 Pacos Ferreira: Result & Stats

Sporting CP B

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Pacos Ferreira

R. Ribeiro 74'

M. Couto 55'

F. Goncalves 45'

8/31/2025

Segunda Liga · Round 4CGD Stadium Aurelio Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Sporting CP B41%

×Draw27%

Pacos Ferreira32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting CP BExpected goals in this matchPacos Ferreira

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.16

Sporting CP B

1.33

Pacos Ferreira

1.16

Sporting CP B creates 15% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 64 away

1.41

creates per match

0.91

1.41

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Sporting CP B

1.41

Pacos Ferreira

0.91

allows per match

Sporting CP B

1.41

Pacos Ferreira

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting CP B+0.00on par

Pacos Ferreira+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP B ↓

Pacos Ferreira →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sporting CP B or draw

68%

Sporting CP B or Pacos Ferreira

73%

Draw or Pacos Ferreira

59%

Winning margin

Sporting CP B wins by 2+

19%

Pacos Ferreira wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sporting CP B 1+ goals

74%

Sporting CP B 2+ goals

38%

Sporting CP B 3+ goals

15%

Pacos Ferreira 1+ goals

69%

Pacos Ferreira 2+ goals

32%

Pacos Ferreira 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP B (draw refunded)

56%

Pacos Ferreira (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP B at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

Pacos Ferreira away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.25 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP B attack 1.41 + Pacos Ferreira defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.33

Pacos Ferreira attack 0.91 + Sporting CP B defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sporting CP B scores more

41%

level

27%

Pacos Ferreira scores more

32%

Sporting CP B at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sporting CP B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

Rayan Lucas

45'

F. Goncalves

46'

V. Silva← L. Dias

51'

L. Anjos

55'

M. Couto

59'

J. Pinto← Joao Caiado

59'

Nito← Francisco Ramos

59'

Costinha← R. Lumungo

62'

F. Gomes

62'

S. Blopa← L. Anjos

68'

R. Dias← J. Silva

68'

E. Felicissimo← Rayan Lucas

68'

M. Mendonca← F. Goncalves

72'

E. Felicissimo

74'

R. Ribeiro

76'

Fernandinho← I. Pavlic

77'

R. Nel← R. Ribeiro

Sporting

Pacos

28

4

23

2

21

8

▼

Pavlic

88

▼

Ramos

6

▼

Caiado

90

▼

Lumungo

9

Victor

15

▼

Dias

41

Callai

55

▼

54

43

45

67

▼

Anjos

78

⚽

Couto

60

▼

Lucas

96

Justo

28

⚽

▼

Ribeiro

58

⚽

▼

Goncalves

Manager: Giao Joao

62'▲S. Blopa←▼L. Anjos

68'▲R. Dias←▼J. Silva

68'▲E. Felicissimo←▼Rayan Lucas

68'▲M. Mendonca←▼F. Goncalves

77'▲R. Nel←▼R. Ribeiro

Sporting CP B substitutes

74Pires46Pontelo50Dias70Blopa73Felicissimo77Besugo82Silva88Mendonca90Nel

Manager: Nuno Braga

46'▲V. Silva←▼L. Dias

59'▲J. Pinto←▼Joao Caiado

59'▲Nito←▼Francisco Ramos

59'▲Costinha←▼R. Lumungo

76'▲Fernandinho←▼I. Pavlic

Pacos Ferreira substitutes

12Jeimes5Sousa13Pinto19Nito22Mota30Costinha33Fernandinho36Silva77Rafael