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Pacos Ferreira vs Sporting CP B — Segunda Liga 2018

Pacos Ferreira
Pacos Ferreira
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Sporting CP B
Sporting CP B
R. Dias 45' (pen)
F. Goncalves 24'
R. Nel 15'
2/10/2026Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 21Estádio da Capital do Móvel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Pacos Ferreira45%
×Draw27%
Sporting CP B28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pacos Ferreira
1.38
Sporting CP B
1.04

Pacos Ferreira creates 33% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 26 away

creates per match

Pacos Ferreira
1.41
Sporting CP B
0.96

allows per match

Pacos Ferreira
1.13
Sporting CP B
1.35

finishing

Pacos Ferreira+0.00on par
Sporting CP B+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pacos Ferreira ↓

Sporting CP B →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Pacos Ferreira or draw
72%
Pacos Ferreira or Sporting CP B
73%
Draw or Sporting CP B
55%

Winning margin

Pacos Ferreira wins by 2+
21%
Sporting CP B wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Pacos Ferreira 1+ goals
75%
Pacos Ferreira 2+ goals
40%
Pacos Ferreira 3+ goals
16%
Sporting CP B 1+ goals
65%
Sporting CP B 2+ goals
28%
Sporting CP B 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Pacos Ferreira (draw refunded)
61%
Sporting CP B (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pacos Ferreira at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.13 · 64 matches

Sporting CP B away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.35 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pacos Ferreira attack 1.41 + Sporting CP B defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.38

Sporting CP B attack 0.96 + Pacos Ferreira defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Pacos Ferreira scores more
45%
level
27%
Sporting CP B scores more
28%

Pacos Ferreira at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Pacos Ferreira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
David Moreira
15'
R. Nel
24'
F. Goncalves
34'
Tiago Ferreira
38'
Mauro Couto
41'
Flavio Goncalves
45'
R. DiasPenalty
46'
Diego Fernandes← I. A. da Silva Moreira
46'
J. Victor← A. Sousa
46'
L. Dias← N. Cunha
49'
Rayan Lucas
53'
Rodrigo Dias
54'
Diego Callai
58'
S. Blopa← R. Dias
58'
E. Felicissimo← Rayan Lucas
62'
L. Taibo Dominguez← J. Muniz
68'
Diego Fernandes
70'
V. Silva← J. Pinto
74'
M. Mendonca← F. Goncalves
75'
Romulus← Bruno Ramos
82'
Leandro Dias
84'
R. Duarte← D. Costa

Statistics

PacosSporting
Discipline
3Yellow Cards6
0Red Cards0

Segunda Liga: Pacos Ferreira 0–3 Sporting CP B

Sporting CP B beat Pacos Ferreira 3-0 in Segunda Liga on February 10, 2026.

Goals: R. Nel (15'), F. Goncalves (24'), R. Dias (45' pen).

The match was played at Estádio da Capital do Móvel in Paços de Ferreira.