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Sporting CP B vs Felgueiras 1932 — Segunda Liga 2018

Sporting CP B
Sporting CP B
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Felgueiras 1932
Felgueiras 1932
Landinho 62'
4/20/2026Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 30CGD Stadium Aurelio Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Sporting CP B38%
×Draw26%
Felgueiras 193236%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting CP B
1.33
Felgueiras 1932
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 34 away

creates per match

Sporting CP B
1.41
Felgueiras 1932
1.15

allows per match

Sporting CP B
1.41
Felgueiras 1932
1.26

finishing

Sporting CP B+0.00on par
Felgueiras 1932+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP B ↓

Felgueiras 1932 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sporting CP B or draw
64%
Sporting CP B or Felgueiras 1932
74%
Draw or Felgueiras 1932
62%

Winning margin

Sporting CP B wins by 2+
17%
Felgueiras 1932 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sporting CP B 1+ goals
74%
Sporting CP B 2+ goals
38%
Sporting CP B 3+ goals
15%
Felgueiras 1932 1+ goals
72%
Felgueiras 1932 2+ goals
37%
Felgueiras 1932 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP B (draw refunded)
52%
Felgueiras 1932 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP B at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

Felgueiras 1932 away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP B attack 1.41 + Felgueiras 1932 defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.33

Felgueiras 1932 attack 1.15 + Sporting CP B defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sporting CP B scores more
38%
level
26%
Felgueiras 1932 scores more
36%

Sporting CP B at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sporting CP B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
Dudu Cruz
60'
F. Goncalves← Kaua Oliveira
60'
S. Blopa← R. Dias
62'
Landinho↳ T. Parente
65'
M. Jean-Marie← T. Leite
68'
Rayan Lucas
68'
L. Anjos← G. Silva
68'
Z. Bafdili← Rayan Lucas
73'
V. Guzman← Bruno Ramos
73'
Dario← Dudu Cruz
87'
Berna← T. Parente
87'
Beni← Michel Costa

Statistics

SportingFelgueiras
Discipline
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

Segunda Liga: Sporting CP B 0–1 Felgueiras 1932

Felgueiras 1932 beat Sporting CP B 1-0 in Segunda Liga on April 20, 2026.

Goals: Landinho (62').

The match was played at CGD Stadium Aurelio Pereira in Alcochete.