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Sporting CP B vs Feirense — Segunda Liga 2018

Sporting CP B
Sporting CP B
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Feirense
Feirense
R. Ribeiro 47'
R. Nel 45' (pen)
M. Mendonca 37'
L. Antunes 78'
T. Ribeiro 14'
11/1/2025Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 10CGD Stadium Aurelio Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Sporting CP B38%
×Draw27%
Feirense35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting CP B
1.30
Feirense
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 111 away

creates per match

Sporting CP B
1.41
Feirense
1.08

allows per match

Sporting CP B
1.41
Feirense
1.20

finishing

Sporting CP B+0.00on par
Feirense+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP B ↓

Feirense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sporting CP B or draw
65%
Sporting CP B or Feirense
73%
Draw or Feirense
62%

Winning margin

Sporting CP B wins by 2+
17%
Feirense wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sporting CP B 1+ goals
73%
Sporting CP B 2+ goals
37%
Sporting CP B 3+ goals
14%
Feirense 1+ goals
71%
Feirense 2+ goals
36%
Feirense 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP B (draw refunded)
52%
Feirense (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP B at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

Feirense away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.20 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP B attack 1.41 + Feirense defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.30

Feirense attack 1.08 + Sporting CP B defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sporting CP B scores more
38%
level
27%
Feirense scores more
35%

Sporting CP B at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sporting CP B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
Diego Altube
14'
T. Ribeiro↳ A. Leal
37'
M. Mendonca↳ Rayan Lucas
45'
R. NelPenalty
47'
R. Ribeiro↳ R. Nel
50'
P. H. de Oliveira da Silva← Ze Ricardo
57'
Daouda Doumbia
63'
Rafael Pontelo← S. Blopa
63'
J. Silva← Bruno Ramos
63'
F. Goncalves← Rayan Lucas
63'
E. Felicissimo← P. Cardoso
63'
B. Silva← G. Costa
72'
M. Couto← R. Nel
78'
L. Antunes↳ J. Oliveira
80'
K. Klimov← N. John
80'
Miguel← T. Ribeiro
80'
Gui Meira← Gustavo
81'
Pedro Henrique Oliveira da Silva
88'
Bruno Silva
89'
Rômulo

Statistics

SportingFeirense
Discipline
1Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards0

Segunda Liga: Sporting CP B 3–2 Feirense

Sporting CP B beat Feirense 3-2 in Segunda Liga on November 1, 2025.

Goals: T. Ribeiro (14'), M. Mendonca (37'), R. Nel (45' pen), R. Ribeiro (47'), L. Antunes (78').

The match was played at CGD Stadium Aurelio Pereira in Alcochete.