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Feirense vs Sporting CP B — Segunda Liga 2018

Feirense
Feirense
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Sporting CP B
Sporting CP B
J. Arriba 5' (pen)
L. Anjos 86'
P. Cardoso 33'
3/22/2026Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 27Estadio Marcolino de Castro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Feirense45%
×Draw28%
Sporting CP B27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Feirense
1.33
Sporting CP B
0.97

Feirense creates 37% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 26 away

creates per match

Feirense
1.31
Sporting CP B
0.96

allows per match

Feirense
0.99
Sporting CP B
1.35

finishing

Feirense+0.00on par
Sporting CP B+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Feirense ↓

Sporting CP B →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Feirense or draw
73%
Feirense or Sporting CP B
72%
Draw or Sporting CP B
55%

Winning margin

Feirense wins by 2+
21%
Sporting CP B wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Feirense 1+ goals
74%
Feirense 2+ goals
38%
Feirense 3+ goals
15%
Sporting CP B 1+ goals
62%
Sporting CP B 2+ goals
25%
Sporting CP B 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Feirense (draw refunded)
62%
Sporting CP B (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Feirense at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.99 · 111 matches

Sporting CP B away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.35 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Feirense attack 1.31 + Sporting CP B defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.33

Sporting CP B attack 0.96 + Feirense defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Feirense scores more
45%
level
28%
Sporting CP B scores more
27%

Feirense at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Feirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
D. NketiaFeirenseFeirense · F
7.5

Match Events

3'
Desmond NketiaPenalty confirmed
5'
J. ArribaPenalty
16'
Samad Popoola
17'
João Muniz
23'
Jonny Arriba
33'
P. Cardoso↳ R. Dias
59'
Miguel← P. H. de Oliveira da Silva
67'
Rodrigo DiasGoal cancelled
70'
Romulus← J. Muniz
70'
E. Felicissimo← Rayan Lucas
72'
G. Novero← D. Nketia
72'
Joao Lima← L. dos Santos
78'
André Lopes
80'
Rodrigo Dias
82'
Z. Bafdili← F. Goncalves
84'
B. Silva← J. Arriba
84'
Ze Ricardo← Gui Meira
86'
L. Anjos↳ P. Cardoso
87'
João Lima
90+10'
Zé Ricardo
90+3'
D. Costa← R. Dias
90+3'
M. Mendonca← M. Couto

Possession

34%Feirense

Shots

10Feirense

Pass accuracy

43%Feirense

Statistics

FeirenseSporting
Overview
34%Possession66%
10Total Shots9
2Corners5
14Fouls8
Shots
10Total Shots9
4On Target5
3Off Target4
3Blocked0
7Inside Box7
3Outside Box2
Passing
34%Possession66%
218Total Passes433
133Accurate Passes356
61%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls8
5Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Feirense vs Sporting CP B

Sporting CP B beat Feirense 2-1 in Segunda Liga on March 22, 2026.

Goals: J. Arriba (5' pen), P. Cardoso (33'), L. Anjos (86').

Sporting CP B controlled possession (66%) and registered 9 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Marcolino de Castro in Santa Maria da Feira.