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Sporting CP B vs Farense — Segunda Liga 2018

Sporting CP B
Sporting CP B
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Farense
Farense
F. Goncalves 76'
R. Nel 45'
P. Cardoso 18'
Claudio Falcao 90'
11/30/2025Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 12CGD Stadium Aurelio Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Sporting CP B37%
×Draw27%
Farense36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting CP B
1.26
Farense
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 76 away

creates per match

Sporting CP B
1.41
Farense
1.04

allows per match

Sporting CP B
1.41
Farense
1.11

finishing

Sporting CP B+0.00on par
Farense+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP B ↓

Farense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sporting CP B or draw
64%
Sporting CP B or Farense
73%
Draw or Farense
63%

Winning margin

Sporting CP B wins by 2+
16%
Farense wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sporting CP B 1+ goals
72%
Sporting CP B 2+ goals
36%
Sporting CP B 3+ goals
13%
Farense 1+ goals
71%
Farense 2+ goals
35%
Farense 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP B (draw refunded)
51%
Farense (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP B at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

Farense away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.11 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP B attack 1.41 + Farense defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.26

Farense attack 1.04 + Sporting CP B defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sporting CP B scores more
37%
level
27%
Farense scores more
36%

Sporting CP B at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sporting CP B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
P. Cardoso
45+2'
Claudio Falcão
45'
R. Nel
46'
F. Delgado← F. Romero
46'
B. Almeida← M. Menino
49'
Derick Poloni
60'
Kaua Oliveira← Rayan Lucas
61'
D. Poveda← B. Sangare
61'
Y. Semedo← A. Ndiaye
65'
Lucas D'Agrella
73'
J. Silva← S. Blopa
73'
M. Couto← M. Mendonca
73'
G. Silva← R. Nel
73'
Jaiminho← A. Candeias
76'
F. Goncalves
83'
R. Besugo← F. Goncalves
90'
Claudio Falcao

Statistics

SportingFarense
Discipline
0Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0

Segunda Liga: Sporting CP B 3–1 Farense

Sporting CP B beat Farense 3-1 in Segunda Liga on November 30, 2025.

Goals: P. Cardoso (18'), R. Nel (45'), F. Goncalves (76'), Claudio Falcao (90').

The match was played at CGD Stadium Aurelio Pereira in Alcochete.