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Farense vs Sporting CP B — Segunda Liga 2018

Farense
Farense
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Sporting CP B
Sporting CP B
Derick Poloni 45' (pen)
L. Oliveira 6'
S. Justo 72'
4/11/2026Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 29Estádio de São Lúis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Farense46%
×Draw28%
Sporting CP B26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Farense
1.36
Sporting CP B
0.95

Farense creates 43% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 26 away

creates per match

Farense
1.37
Sporting CP B
0.96

allows per match

Farense
0.95
Sporting CP B
1.35

finishing

Farense+0.00on par
Sporting CP B+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farense ↓

Sporting CP B →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Farense or draw
74%
Farense or Sporting CP B
72%
Draw or Sporting CP B
54%

Winning margin

Farense wins by 2+
22%
Sporting CP B wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Farense 1+ goals
74%
Farense 2+ goals
39%
Farense 3+ goals
16%
Sporting CP B 1+ goals
61%
Sporting CP B 2+ goals
25%
Sporting CP B 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Farense (draw refunded)
64%
Sporting CP B (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farense at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.95 · 75 matches

Sporting CP B away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.35 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farense attack 1.37 + Sporting CP B defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.36

Sporting CP B attack 0.96 + Farense defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Farense scores more
46%
level
28%
Sporting CP B scores more
26%

Farense at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Farense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
L. Oliveira↳ Derick Poloni
23'
M. Menino← Alysson
36'
João Muniz
45'
Derick PoloniPenalty
46'
G. Silva← J. Muniz
58'
Yannick Semedo
65'
B. Almeida← A. Ndiaye
65'
B. Sangare← L. Oliveira
70'
E. Felicissimo← P. Cardoso
70'
R. Besugo← Rayan Lucas
70'
M. Mendonca← Z. Bafdili
72'
S. Justo↳ E. Felicissimo
75'
R. Costa← A. Candeias
75'
D. Poveda← Y. Semedo
80'
Kaua Oliveira← S. Justo
87'
Eduardo Felicíssimo

Statistics

FarenseSporting
Discipline
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Farense vs Sporting CP B

Farense beat Sporting CP B 2-1 in Segunda Liga on April 11, 2026.

Goals: L. Oliveira (6'), Derick Poloni (45' pen), S. Justo (72').

The match was played at Estádio de São Lúis in Faro.