Sporting CP B 2–1 CF Os Belenenses: Result & Stats

Sporting CP B

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

CF Os Belenenses

Luís Gomes 75'

Rafael Nel 12'

Diogo Brasido 52'

1/18/2025

Liga 3 · Round 17CGD Stadium Aurélio Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Sporting CP B39%

×Draw27%

CF Os Belenenses34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting CP BExpected goals in this matchCF Os Belenenses

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.20

Sporting CP B

1.31

CF Os Belenenses

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 47 away

1.47

creates per match

1.45

0.95

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Sporting CP B

1.47

CF Os Belenenses

1.45

allows per match

Sporting CP B

0.95

CF Os Belenenses

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting CP B+0.00on par

CF Os Belenenses+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP B ↓

CF Os Belenenses →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sporting CP B or draw

66%

Sporting CP B or CF Os Belenenses

73%

Draw or CF Os Belenenses

61%

Winning margin

Sporting CP B wins by 2+

18%

CF Os Belenenses wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sporting CP B 1+ goals

73%

Sporting CP B 2+ goals

38%

Sporting CP B 3+ goals

14%

CF Os Belenenses 1+ goals

70%

CF Os Belenenses 2+ goals

34%

CF Os Belenenses 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP B (draw refunded)

54%

CF Os Belenenses (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP B at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.95 · 58 matches

CF Os Belenenses away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.15 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP B attack 1.47 + CF Os Belenenses defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.31

CF Os Belenenses attack 1.45 + Sporting CP B defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sporting CP B scores more

39%

level

27%

CF Os Belenenses scores more

34%

Sporting CP B at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sporting CP B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

12'

52'

55'

68'

Tiago Moninhas← Xavi Fernandes

71'

N. Tomas

75'

Luís Gomes

76'

R. Nel

81'

Marlon Júnior← Luís Gomes

81'

Rafael Besugo← Manuel Mendonça

81'

Rodrigo Dias← José Silva

81'

Flávio Gonçalves← Lucas Anjos

82'

B. Zakari← Rodrigo Pereira

82'

86'

89'

89'

90+4'

90+4'

90+4'

Lucas Taibo← Rafael Nel

Sporting

CF

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Gomes

⚽

▼

Nel

Manager: João Pereira

81'▲Marlon Júnior←▼Luís Gomes

81'▲Rafael Besugo←▼Manuel Mendonça

81'▲Rodrigo Dias←▼José Silva

81'▲Flávio Gonçalves←▼Lucas Anjos

90+4'▲Lucas Taibo←▼Rafael Nel

Sporting CP B substitutes

JúniorBesugoDiasGonçalvesTaibo

Manager: José Sousa

68'▲Tiago Moninhas←▼Xavi Fernandes

82'▲B. Zakari←▼Rodrigo Pereira

82'▲C. Triana←▼H. Ondoa

89'▲Diogo Leitão←▼Gabi

89'▲Danny Tavares←▼Cuca

CF Os Belenenses substitutes

MoninhasZakariTrianaLeitãoTavares

Liga 3: Sporting CP B 2–1 CF Os Belenenses

Sporting CP B beat CF Os Belenenses 2-1 in Liga 3 on January 18, 2025.

Goals: Rafael Nel (12'), Diogo Brasido (52'), Luís Gomes (75').

The match was played at CGD Stadium Aurélio Pereira in Alcochete.

Sporting CP B vs CF Os Belenenses — Liga 3 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Liga 3: Sporting CP B 2–1 CF Os Belenenses