CF Os Belenenses 1–1 Sporting CP B: Result & Stats

CF Os Belenenses

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sporting CP B

Xavi Fernandes 90+5' (pen)

Rafael Nel 53'

10/6/2024

Liga 3 · Round 8Estádio do Restelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

CF Os Belenenses46%

×Draw27%

Sporting CP B27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CF Os BelenensesExpected goals in this matchSporting CP B

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.00

CF Os Belenenses

1.39

Sporting CP B

1.00

CF Os Belenenses creates 39% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 58 away

1.52

creates per match

1.14

0.87

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

CF Os Belenenses

1.52

Sporting CP B

1.14

allows per match

CF Os Belenenses

0.87

Sporting CP B

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CF Os Belenenses+0.00on par

Sporting CP B+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Os Belenenses ↓

Sporting CP B →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

CF Os Belenenses or draw

73%

CF Os Belenenses or Sporting CP B

73%

Draw or Sporting CP B

54%

Winning margin

CF Os Belenenses wins by 2+

22%

Sporting CP B wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

CF Os Belenenses 1+ goals

75%

CF Os Belenenses 2+ goals

40%

CF Os Belenenses 3+ goals

16%

Sporting CP B 1+ goals

63%

Sporting CP B 2+ goals

26%

Sporting CP B 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

CF Os Belenenses (draw refunded)

63%

Sporting CP B (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Os Belenenses at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.87 · 46 matches

Sporting CP B away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.26 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Os Belenenses attack 1.52 + Sporting CP B defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.39

Sporting CP B attack 1.14 + CF Os Belenenses defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

CF Os Belenenses scores more

46%

level

27%

Sporting CP B scores more

27%

CF Os Belenenses at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "CF Os Belenenses will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

M. Alves

53'

Rafael Nel

58'

D. Brazido

63'

José Varela← Danny Tavares

63'

Midana Sambú← H. Ondoa

65'

Gabriel Silva← Rafael Nel

73'

João Simões← Rafael Besugo

80'

Xavi Fernandes← Diogo Leitão

80'

B. Zakari← Rodrigo Pereira

80'

Tiago Moninhas← Cuca

85'

R. Carvalho

89'

Luís Gomes← Samuel Justo

89'

Leonardo Barroso← Mauro Couto

89'

Alexandre Brito← Manuel Mendonça

90+3'

G. Silva

90+5'

Xavi FernandesPenalty

CF

Sporting

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: José Sousa

63'▲José Varela←▼Danny Tavares

63'▲Midana Sambú←▼H. Ondoa

80'▲Xavi Fernandes←▼Diogo Leitão

80'▲B. Zakari←▼Rodrigo Pereira

80'▲Tiago Moninhas←▼Cuca

CF Os Belenenses substitutes

VarelaSambúFernandesZakariMoninhas

Manager: João Pereira

65'▲Gabriel Silva←▼Rafael Nel

73'▲João Simões←▼Rafael Besugo

89'▲Luís Gomes←▼Samuel Justo

89'▲Leonardo Barroso←▼Mauro Couto

89'▲Alexandre Brito←▼Manuel Mendonça

Sporting CP B substitutes

SilvaSimõesGomesBarrosoBrito

Liga 3: CF Os Belenenses 1–1 Sporting CP B

CF Os Belenenses and Sporting CP B drew 1-1 in Liga 3 on October 6, 2024.

Goals: Rafael Nel (53'), Xavi Fernandes (90+5' pen).

The match was played at Estádio do Restelo in Lisboa.

CF Os Belenenses vs Sporting CP B — Liga 3 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Liga 3: CF Os Belenenses 1–1 Sporting CP B