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Sporting Charleroi II vs Rochefort — League #487 2026

Sporting Charleroi II
Sporting Charleroi II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Rochefort
Rochefort
Y. Cisse 71'
A. Stanic 66'
N. Azevedo-Janelas 22'
10/12/2025League #487League #487 · ACFF - 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Sporting Charleroi II42%
×Draw27%
Rochefort31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Charleroi II
1.33
Rochefort
1.11

Sporting Charleroi II creates 20% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

creates per match

Sporting Charleroi II
1.00
Rochefort
1.08

allows per match

Sporting Charleroi II
1.14
Rochefort
1.67

finishing

Sporting Charleroi II+0.00on par
Rochefort+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Charleroi II ↓

Rochefort →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sporting Charleroi II or draw
69%
Sporting Charleroi II or Rochefort
73%
Draw or Rochefort
58%

Winning margin

Sporting Charleroi II wins by 2+
19%
Rochefort wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sporting Charleroi II 1+ goals
74%
Sporting Charleroi II 2+ goals
38%
Sporting Charleroi II 3+ goals
15%
Rochefort 1+ goals
67%
Rochefort 2+ goals
30%
Rochefort 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sporting Charleroi II (draw refunded)
57%
Rochefort (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Charleroi II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Rochefort away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Charleroi II attack 1.00 + Rochefort defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Rochefort attack 1.08 + Sporting Charleroi II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sporting Charleroi II scores more
42%
level
27%
Rochefort scores more
31%

Sporting Charleroi II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sporting Charleroi II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
N. Azevedo-Janelas
66'
A. Stanic
71'
Y. Cisse
Sporting
Rochefort
F. Defays
Manager: F. Defays
J. Rentmeister
Manager: J. Rentmeister

Match Recap: Sporting Charleroi II vs Rochefort

Sporting Charleroi II beat Rochefort 2-1 in League #487 on October 12, 2025.

Goals: N. Azevedo-Janelas (22'), A. Stanic (66'), Y. Cisse (71').