Rochefort 2–2 Sporting Charleroi II: Result & Stats

Rochefort

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Sporting Charleroi II

G. Robail 81'

G. Perseo 52' (pen)

A. Mulumba Kankonde 71'

Q. Benaets 41'

11/17/2024

League #487 · ACFF - 13Parc des Roches

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Rochefort31%

×Draw25%

Sporting Charleroi II44%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RochefortExpected goals in this matchSporting Charleroi II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.58

Rochefort

1.28

Sporting Charleroi II

1.58

Sporting Charleroi II creates 23% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 7 away

1.27

creates per match

1.57

1.60

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Rochefort

1.27

Sporting Charleroi II

1.57

allows per match

Rochefort

1.60

Sporting Charleroi II

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rochefort+0.00on par

Sporting Charleroi II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochefort ↓

Sporting Charleroi II →

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Rochefort or draw

56%

Rochefort or Sporting Charleroi II

75%

Draw or Sporting Charleroi II

69%

Winning margin

Rochefort wins by 2+

13%

Sporting Charleroi II wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Rochefort 1+ goals

72%

Rochefort 2+ goals

37%

Rochefort 3+ goals

14%

Sporting Charleroi II 1+ goals

79%

Sporting Charleroi II 2+ goals

47%

Sporting Charleroi II 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Rochefort (draw refunded)

41%

Sporting Charleroi II (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rochefort at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

Sporting Charleroi II away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rochefort attack 1.27 + Sporting Charleroi II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.28

Sporting Charleroi II attack 1.57 + Rochefort defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Rochefort scores more

31%

level

25%

Sporting Charleroi II scores more

44%

Sporting Charleroi II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sporting Charleroi II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

Q. Benaets

46'

N. Gosselain← C. Uhía

52'

G. PerseoPenalty

71'

A. Mulumba Kankonde

74'

M. Renquin← A. Sarr

74'

G. Robail← M. Wilmots

77'

L. Delperdange← Y. Djongambo Apo

81'

G. Robail

85'

M. Lonreiro← J. Capon

Rochefort

Sporting

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: J. Rentmeister

46'▲N. Gosselain←▼C. Uhía

74'▲M. Renquin←▼A. Sarr

74'▲G. Robail←▼M. Wilmots

Rochefort substitutes

GosselainRenquinRobail

Manager: F. Defays

77'▲L. Delperdange←▼Y. Djongambo Apo

85'▲M. Lonreiro←▼J. Capon

Sporting Charleroi II substitutes

DelperdangeLonreiro