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Sporting Braga W vs Racing Power W — 1a Divisão - Women 2022

Sporting Braga W
Sporting Braga W
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Racing Power W
Racing Power W
12/21/20251a Divisão - Women1a Divisão - Women · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Sporting Braga W54%
×Draw26%
Racing Power W20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Braga W
1.54
Racing Power W
0.82

Sporting Braga W creates 88% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 9 away

creates per match

Sporting Braga W
2.31
Racing Power W
0.67

allows per match

Sporting Braga W
0.98
Racing Power W
0.78

finishing

Sporting Braga W+0.00on par
Racing Power W+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Braga W ↓

Racing Power W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sporting Braga W or draw
80%
Sporting Braga W or Racing Power W
74%
Draw or Racing Power W
46%

Winning margin

Sporting Braga W wins by 2+
28%
Racing Power W wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sporting Braga W 1+ goals
79%
Sporting Braga W 2+ goals
45%
Sporting Braga W 3+ goals
20%
Racing Power W 1+ goals
56%
Racing Power W 2+ goals
20%
Racing Power W 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sporting Braga W (draw refunded)
73%
Racing Power W (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Braga W at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.98 · 42 matches

Racing Power W away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Braga W attack 2.31 + Racing Power W defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.54

Racing Power W attack 0.67 + Sporting Braga W defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sporting Braga W scores more
54%
level
26%
Racing Power W scores more
20%

Sporting Braga W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sporting Braga W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1a Divisão - Women: Sporting Braga W 0–0 Racing Power W

Sporting Braga W and Racing Power W drew 0-0 in 1a Divisão - Women on December 21, 2025.