Racing Power W 1–2 Sporting Braga W: Result & Stats

Racing Power W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Sporting Braga W

P. Gonzalez 73'

M. Flores 68'

M. Detrizio 4'

5/3/2026

1a Divisão - Women · Round 17Complexo Municipal de Atletismo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Racing Power W23%

×Draw22%

Sporting Braga W54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing Power WExpected goals in this matchSporting Braga W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.92

Racing Power W

1.19

Sporting Braga W

1.92

Sporting Braga W creates 61% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 42 away

1.11

creates per match

2.07

1.78

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Racing Power W

1.11

Sporting Braga W

2.07

allows per match

Racing Power W

1.78

Sporting Braga W

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Power W+0.00on par

Sporting Braga W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Power W ↓

Sporting Braga W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Racing Power W or draw

46%

Racing Power W or Sporting Braga W

78%

Draw or Sporting Braga W

77%

Winning margin

Racing Power W wins by 2+

9%

Sporting Braga W wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Racing Power W 1+ goals

70%

Racing Power W 2+ goals

33%

Racing Power W 3+ goals

12%

Sporting Braga W 1+ goals

85%

Sporting Braga W 2+ goals

57%

Sporting Braga W 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Racing Power W (draw refunded)

30%

Sporting Braga W (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Power W at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Sporting Braga W away — creates 2.07, concedes 1.26 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Power W attack 1.11 + Sporting Braga W defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Sporting Braga W attack 2.07 + Racing Power W defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Racing Power W scores more

23%

level

22%

Sporting Braga W scores more

54%

Sporting Braga W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sporting Braga W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

M. Detrizio

46'

L. Worden← S. N. High

62'

A. Halldorsdottir← C. Vieira

68'

M. Flores↳ M. Schmidt

71'

M. Ferreira← B. Rodrigues

73'

P. Gonzalez↳ A. Mahrt

78'

M. Alagoa← M. Detrizio

86'

M. Barboz← A. Mahrt

88'

A. Cunha← M. Miller

88'

C. Esteves Rocha← M. Flores

90+1'

A. Nogueira← M. Ferreira

Racing

Sporting

28

Morais

16

Filipinha

2

▼

5

19

20

25

▼

Vieira

86

Bravo

14

⚽

▼

Detrizio

9

A

Schmidt

11

⚽

▼

Flores

13

Exposito

25

▼

Rodrigues

3

Duah

7

Pettet

28

▼

Ferreira

5

▼

High

6

⚽

Gonzalez

17

Besugo

2

A

▼

Mahrt

14

Haakenson

23

Ezekiel

46'▲L. Worden←▼S. N. High

71'▲M. Ferreira←▼B. Rodrigues

86'▲M. Barboz←▼A. Mahrt

90+1'▲A. Nogueira←▼M. Ferreira

Racing Power W substitutes

1Oliveira70Rosa26NogueiraSalgueiro10Barboz8Realista24Monteiro38Ferreira9Worden

62'▲A. Halldorsdottir←▼C. Vieira

78'▲M. Alagoa←▼M. Detrizio

88'▲A. Cunha←▼M. Miller

88'▲C. Esteves Rocha←▼M. Flores

Sporting Braga W substitutes

12Esgueirao21Moon22Masur88Cunha8Alagoa87Melo7Rocha10Halldorsdottir4Dudukovich