Sporting Braga U19 0–0 Real Madrid U19

Sporting Braga U19

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Real Madrid U19

10/24/2023

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 3Cidade Desportiva SC Braga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sporting Braga U1925%

×Draw29%

Real Madrid U1946%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting Braga U19Expected goals in this matchReal Madrid U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.85

1.28

Sporting Braga U19

0.85

Real Madrid U19

1.28

Real Madrid U19 creates 51% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 25 away

0.67

creates per match

2.56

0.00

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Sporting Braga U19

0.67

Real Madrid U19

2.56

allows per match

Sporting Braga U19

0.00

Real Madrid U19

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Braga U19+0.00on par

Real Madrid U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Braga U19 ↓

Real Madrid U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–115%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Sporting Braga U19 or draw

54%

Sporting Braga U19 or Real Madrid U19

71%

Draw or Real Madrid U19

75%

Winning margin

Sporting Braga U19 wins by 2+

8%

Real Madrid U19 wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Sporting Braga U19 1+ goals

57%

Sporting Braga U19 2+ goals

21%

Sporting Braga U19 3+ goals

5%

Real Madrid U19 1+ goals

72%

Real Madrid U19 2+ goals

37%

Real Madrid U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sporting Braga U19 (draw refunded)

35%

Real Madrid U19 (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Braga U19 at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

Real Madrid U19 away — creates 2.56, concedes 1.04 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Braga U19 attack 0.67 + Real Madrid U19 defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.85

Real Madrid U19 attack 2.56 + Sporting Braga U19 defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sporting Braga U19 scores more

25%

level

29%

Real Madrid U19 scores more

46%

Real Madrid U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Real Madrid U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

I. Bravo

30'

Chissumba

30'

M. A. Moran

46'

Daniel Yañez← Nico Sánchez

49'

C. Andres

50'

G. Barbosa

64'

R. Duarte

71'

Rúben Furtado← Diego Rodrigues

71'

João Faria← João Vasconcelos

78'

Dani Meso← Hugo de Llanos

80'

Dinis Rodrigues← Kauan Kelvin

85'

Rodrigo Abreu← Afonso Duarte

85'

Álvaro Ginés← Iker Bravo

88'

Roberto Martín← Manuel Ángel

90+1'

Yusi

Sporting

Real

25

3

4

2

8

▼

Ángel

7

García

10

Paz

11

▼

Llanos

6

Andrés

18

▼

Sánchez

9

▼

1

5

4

3

2

10

▼

Vasconcel

8

▼

Rodrigues

7

▼

Duarte

6

Barbosa

11

Fernandes

9

▼

Kelvin

Manager: Pedro Pires

71'▲Rúben Furtado←▼Diego Rodrigues

71'▲João Faria←▼João Vasconcelos

80'▲Dinis Rodrigues←▼Kauan Kelvin

85'▲Rodrigo Abreu←▼Afonso Duarte

Sporting Braga U19 substitutes

17Furtado15Faria18Rodrigues16Abreu12Amorim14Fernandes13Sá

Manager: Arbeloa

46'▲Daniel Yañez←▼Nico Sánchez

78'▲Dani Meso←▼Hugo de Llanos

85'▲Álvaro Ginés←▼Iker Bravo

88'▲Roberto Martín←▼Manuel Ángel

Real Madrid U19 substitutes

39Yañez30Meso20Ginés29Martín36Cestero21Zidane1Quetglás

Match Recap: Sporting Braga U19 vs Real Madrid U19

Sporting Braga U19 and Real Madrid U19 drew 0-0 in UEFA Youth League on October 24, 2023.

The match was played at Cidade Desportiva SC Braga in Braga.

Sporting Braga U19 vs Real Madrid U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sporting Braga U19 vs Real Madrid U19