Real Madrid U19 0–0 Sporting Braga U19

Real Madrid U19

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sporting Braga U19

11/8/2023

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 4Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Real Madrid U1940%

×Draw23%

Sporting Braga U1937%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Madrid U19Expected goals in this matchSporting Braga U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.63

Real Madrid U19

1.71

Sporting Braga U19

1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 4 away

2.67

creates per match

2.00

1.25

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Real Madrid U19

2.67

Sporting Braga U19

2.00

allows per match

Real Madrid U19

1.25

Sporting Braga U19

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Madrid U19+0.00on par

Sporting Braga U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid U19 ↓

Sporting Braga U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Real Madrid U19 or draw

63%

Real Madrid U19 or Sporting Braga U19

77%

Draw or Sporting Braga U19

60%

Winning margin

Real Madrid U19 wins by 2+

21%

Sporting Braga U19 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Real Madrid U19 1+ goals

82%

Real Madrid U19 2+ goals

51%

Real Madrid U19 3+ goals

24%

Sporting Braga U19 1+ goals

80%

Sporting Braga U19 2+ goals

48%

Sporting Braga U19 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid U19 (draw refunded)

52%

Sporting Braga U19 (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid U19 at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.25 · 24 matches

Sporting Braga U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid U19 attack 2.67 + Sporting Braga U19 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.71

Sporting Braga U19 attack 2.00 + Real Madrid U19 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Real Madrid U19 scores more

40%

level

23%

Sporting Braga U19 scores more

37%

Real Madrid U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Real Madrid U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

Chissumba

37'

J. Fortea

40'

G. Costa

61'

Afonso Duarte← Kauan Kelvin

76'

Iker Bravo← Hugo de Llanos

76'

Dani Meso← Pol Durán

76'

Afonso Patrão← Dinis Rodrigues

76'

Ivo Lopes← João Vasconcelos

84'

G. Barbosa

87'

Rúben Furtado← Diego Rodrigues

Real

Sporting

1

5

4

3

2

10

▼

Vasconcel

8

▼

Rodrigues

6

Barbosa

11

Fernandes

9

▼

Rodrigues

7

▼

40

5

3

2

27

41

22

11

▼

Llanos

6

Andrés

28

▼

Durán

7

García

Manager: Arbeloa

76'▲Iker Bravo←▼Hugo de Llanos

76'▲Dani Meso←▼Pol Durán

Real Madrid U19 substitutes

9Bravo30Meso20Ginés36Cestero18Sánchez15Pérez1Quetglás

Manager: Pedro Pires

61'▲Afonso Duarte←▼Kauan Kelvin

76'▲Afonso Patrão←▼Dinis Rodrigues

76'▲Ivo Lopes←▼João Vasconcelos

87'▲Rúben Furtado←▼Diego Rodrigues

Sporting Braga U19 substitutes

16Duarte18Patrão15Lopes17Furtado13Sá12Žnuderl14Fernandes